970
FNUS73 KMPX 231332
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Freeman WMA...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
832 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For the Freeman WMA fire, winds will be out of the
south/southeast at ignition with speeds between 10-15 mph. A
slight increase in winds will bring gusts into to the 20-25 mph
range this afternoon. RH`s in the 60s at ignition will fall into
the 40-45 percent range this afternoon. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible this evening, with more likely
storms overnight.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........64 at ignition...Max 78.
RH..................67 percent at ignition...Min 40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 10 to 17 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /22200 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /98700 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    excellent (148500 knot-ft) late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 6500 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....South 18 to 26 mph increasing to around 29 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....                SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............64  66  69  71  73  75  76  76  76  74  71  69
RH..............67  63  59  55  51  45  43  43  43  48  55  57
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..10  12  14  14  15  16  17  17  16  14  14  14
20 FT wind gust.15  17  20  21  22  23  24  24  23  22  22  22
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 2.8 3.6 4.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 6.3 4.3 2.6 0.9 0.6
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.18  21  22  23  23  21  26  29  24  21  22  21
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers likely
                    in the evening. Chance of thunderstorms through
                    the night. Showers overnight.
Temperature.........Min 56.
RH..................Max 93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 14 to 16 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (90000 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (7700 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Rain showers
                    likely in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms
                    through the day. Chance of rain showers in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 63.
RH..................Min 59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 15 mph shifting to the west
                    16 to 23 mph early in the morning. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (13000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (109700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (109800
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 24 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 26 to 32 mph late in the morning.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Strus
Requested by...Matt Mecklenburg
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414999.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL matt.mecklenburg@state.mn.us