575
FNUS73 KMPX 171133
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Loen NE...FWS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
633 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on May 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Any stray showers should be moving out this morning, allowing
skies to mostly clear out. Temperatures could make a run up into
the 90s depending on how much persistent sunlight we see today.
This would allow RH values to drop as low as the upper 20s by this
afternoon. Winds will be light this morning, but will pick up in
strength this afternoon out of the south, with gusts up to 15-20
mph possible at times.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Temperature.........78 at ignition...Max 87.
RH..................45 percent at ignition...Min 27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 9 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 9 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /23300 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /103200 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    excellent (129700 knot-ft) late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 8700 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 20 mph.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 6.

TIME (CDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............78  82  85  86  87  87  87  86  83  77  75  73
RH..............45  40  34  29  27  27  27  30  34  43  46  51
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..9   9   10  12  13  12  10  9   10  13  14  16
20 FT wind gust.15  15  16  18  20  18  17  16  17  20  22  24
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 3.7 6.0 7.4 8.1 8.7 7.9 2.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.S   S   SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.12  12  15  16  18  20  18  16  17  18  21  21
Haines index....6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 3 am.
Temperature.........Min 64.
RH..................Max 67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 17 mph becoming around 13 mph
                    after 3 am. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (127200 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to good (35700 knot-ft) late in the
                    night decreasing to poor (8400 knot-ft) early
                    in the evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 22 mph.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Temperature.........Max 73.
RH..................Min 28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 13 to 16 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 17 to 21 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (89300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (107200
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 16 mph increasing to west 22
                    to 31 mph early in the morning.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Dettmann
Requested by...Millette
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414489.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL phil_millette@fws.gov