Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
671 FXUS63 KMQT 291831 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 231 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread frost expected tonight across much of the UP away from the shores of the Great Lakes. Localized hard freezes cannot be ruled out but is not expected to be widespread. - Below normal temperatures through tonight, then warming up through early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 GOES Visible imagery shows a near-perfectly clear sky over the UP today with fair weather cu staying to the south and west of the UP. This is caused by a RAP-analyzed 1025mb high pressure centered over west-central Lake Superior this afternoon, supported by ridging aloft over the Great Plains. High temps this afternoon in response to the clear skies will climb into the 60s for much of the interior UP, though lingering northerly wind gusts will keep the Lake Superior shores in the 50s. Overnight, clear skies will continue. With a well-mixed airmass that has already seen RHs falling into the 20s, radiational cooling is expected to be quite efficient. However, various rules of thumb point to temperatures only reaching around freezing or just above freezing, with MOS guidance trending warmer with recent model runs. Forecast lows overnight are now forecast to be as low as 30F as a result, though it would not be a surprise for the typical cold spots in valleys and other low-lying areas to have hard freezes. While hard freezes will be limited to localized areas, frost should be widespread in the early morning areas for all of the UP away from the shores of the Great Lakes. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the ern U.S., a trough in the western U.S. and a ridge in the upper Mississippi Valley 00z Thu. This ridge moves into the upper Great Lakes 00z Fri with the trough moving into the northern plains. This trough moves into the upper Great Lakes 00z Sat. Frost still looks likely tonight, but below freezing temperatures look to be brief. Still not confident enough though to get with a frost advisory though as most guidance is warmer even though ideal radiational cooling with light winds and a clear sky sets up tonight. Otherwise, did not make too many changes to the going forecast. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough on the west coast, a trough in the upper Mississippi River Valley and a ridge in the ern U.S. 12z Sat. The western trough moves into the Rockies 12z Sun and into the northern plains 12z Mon and into Ontario 12z Tue. Another trough moves into the Rockies 12z Tue and into the northern plains 12z Wed. Temperatures remain above normal for this forecast with a sfc front hanging around the area which could kick off some convection at times. Only real dry period looks to be Sat night into Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 125 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Under high pressure, VFR will prevail at all TAF sites with SKC conditions and P6SM vis through 12Z Thursday. Winds may be variable, but they will be mainly 5 knots or below through the TAF period with the exception of gusty conditions currently at SAW and IWD. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 High pressure over the Great Lakes and with no strong systems passing by or through, the wind stays at or below 20 knots through the forecast period. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GS LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...GS MARINE...07