920
FXUS63 KMQT 251824
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
224 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog ends within an hour or two after sunrise. Some
  areas of fog may be dense at times, reducing visibilities to
  1/2 mile or less.

- Dry weather is expected this week into the weekend.

- Temperatures trend well above normal into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 414 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Current RAP analysis shows the 1006mb low centered over Lower MI
underneath a shortwave. This is currently lighting up the radar
returns over northern Lower MI and the far eastern UP as light
showers lift through Luce County. The stronger mid level features
include mid level trough over northwestern Ontario, an additional
trough over the Mid Mississippi Valley, and a strong ridge over the
Rockies. The showers over the east will continue to lift north
through Sunrise as the low moves toward Lake Huron. These showers
alongside the low cloud deck are keeping temps warmer in the east in
the mid to upper 50s. In contrast, a drier airmass to the west has
limited mid level clouds ahead of the trough to the northwest. Thus,
radiative cooling under these clear skies has allowed for temps to
fall into the low 40s. With the strong inversion in place and light
winds, this set up has resulted in patchy fog development across the
west half. Some of this fog has been dense at times, particularly
along the WI/MI state line where visibilities have periodically
dropped down to 1/2 miles or less. While a few spots may dip into
the mid to upper 30s ahead of sunrise, fog may limit cooling. Patchy
fog is likely to prevail through a hour or two of sunrise.

As the low pressure lifts north over Lake Huron to northern Ontario
this morning and low level winds turn northwest, showers diminish
and are forced east out of the CWA. Some scattered low level clouds
may accompany the eastward progressing trough to the north, but
mostly sunny skies and dry weather is expected today as the mid
level ridge progresses east toward the Great Lakes. Temps warm above
normal today, peaking in the mid 60s to mid 70. Also, mixing this
afternoon may result in some west winds gusting up to 20 mph in the
Keweenaw.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low of Hurricane
Helene in the Gulf of Mexico, a closed low over the mid Mississippi
Valley, and a closed low over southwest Quebec with a trough in the
Pacific NW and a ridge in the southern Rockies into the northern
Plains 12z Thu. The ridge builds into the upper Great Lakes Thu
night through Sat and will bring dry and warm weather to the area.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb closed low over the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys 12z Sunday with a trough in the Pacific
NW and ridging over the southern and central Rockies into the upper
Great Lakes. Troughing moves into the northern plains 12z Mon and
into the upper Great Lakes 12z Tue as a ridge builds into the
western U.S. Ridging moves into the southern half of the U.S. 12z
Wed. Temperatures start out above normal for Sunday and Monday and
then drop to near normal for Tuesday and Wednesday as colder air
moves in.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

With low pressure well to the east and departing the region to the
northeast, fair weather and VFR will prevail today. Winds mainly out
of the northwest around 5 to 10 kt will become light and variable
tonight. Fog remains about 20% likely at IWD and CMX, though
proabbilities are increasing slightly at CMX. With some higher
probabilities up to 35% at SAW overnight, a TEMPO group has been
added for MVFR fog. If guidance continues to suggest increasing
probabilities of fog, MVFR or lower visbys may become the prevailing
condition for tomorrow morning in future TAF issuances.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Upper Michigan will remain under high pressure for the duration
of the forecast period. Therefore, winds will remain at or below 20
knots through Sunday. 20 to 30 knot winds will not be until Monday
when the next system starts to enter the region.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jablonski
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...07