Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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983 FXUS63 KMQT 250542 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 142 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Around 20% chances of patchy fog tonight with a slight chance (~10%) of some dense fog. - Dry weather is expected this week into the weekend. - Temperatures trend to well above normal into next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 322 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 GOES-16 Day Cloud Phase RGB imagery shows fair-weather cu across much of central and western Upper Michigan. Meanwhile, further south, a RAP-analyzed 1007mb low is churning over southern Lower Michigan as it moves northeast. This low will mainly miss the UP to the south and east, but there remains a 20-30% chance of a few isolated light rain showers over Luce County this evening and slight chances (~15% for western Schoolcraft and Alger counties to get some rain as well. Expect highs to only top out in the mid 60s to low 70s today, which is around normal for this time of year. These showers should depart slowly through the overnight period and the extra cloud cover should help keep low temperatures tonight from tanking too low with bias-corrected MOS guidance suggesting lows in the 40s in the west and low 50s in the east. GFS LAMP guidance suggests another night of patchy fog is possible with probabilities of visibility below 5 miles of around 30% and below one mile visibility at around 10%. The HREF is a bit more aggressive with fog formation tonight with widespread probabilities of 1 miles or less visibility around 30-60%. Euro visibility meteograms line up well with the GFS LAMP guidance, so will lean that way with patchy fog probs around ~20%. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 232 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on the west coast, a ridge in the Rockies and a trough in the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region 12z Wed. Ridging then moves into the northern plains by 00z Thu and builds into the upper Great Lakes after 00z Fri. Dry weather continues through Friday. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb closed low over the mid Mississippi Valley with a ridge over most of the rest of the U.S. 12z Sat which remains the same through 12z Sun. By 12z Mon, a trough moves into the northern plains which then moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Tue. Temperatures look to be above normal through the period with a cooling trend on Tuesday. Went dry for pops Sat night through Sun night with high pressure in the area. Starting Monday, pops start to show up in the forecast, but thinking is they might be overdone a tad bit especially with upper level ridging in the area which is strong. Only fly in the ointment is a sfc cold front stalled out over the area Monday which looks to start off dry anyway before upper troughing starts to affect the area Tuesday. Confidence is low with pops on Monday and would like to trim back pops on Tuesday as they seem overdone due to strength of upper ridge, but will leave alone for now as manual progs show a cold front moving through the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 141 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 VFR is expected to prevail thru this fcst period at CMX. At SAW, radiational fog should develop under mostly clear skies and little to no wind. IWD is already seeing patchy fog down to LIFR/IFR levels, which likely will persist until around sunrise. As with previous fcst, kept a mention of MVFR at SAW overnight. While there is some potential for IFR or even LIFR, light northwesterly low- level flow is not typically favorable for such development. If fog does develop, it will dissipate within 2 hrs after sunrise. Light winds under 5kt overnight will become W to NW to around 10kt today, but wind will become NNE at SAW in the aftn. && .MARINE... Issued at 232 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 With a persistent benign pattern over the area, the wind will stay at or below 20 knots for this forecast period. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GS LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Jablonski/Rolfson MARINE...07