Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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333 FXUS63 KMQT 240814 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 414 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Other than a low chance (15-30%) of showers this afternoon through tonight in eastern Upper Michigan, dry weather is expected this week into the weekend. - Temperatures trend to well above normal by late this week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 116 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Apart from some fair weather cumulus developing across the western half of the UP, skies remain sunny with weak ridging in place over the Great Lakes. Temperatures hover in the lower 60s so far, and should be able to climb a little higher into the mid and possibly upper 60s across most of the UP this afternoon. Tonight, our ridge breaks down as a couple features of interest move towards the area. The first is a shortwave currently tracking into the mid-Mississippi valley. This heads into the Lower Great Lakes tonight, while another surface low currently moving into Manitoba tracks through Ontario. None of these are expected to track close enough to the UP to bring in any rain chances tonight, but a resulting shift to southerly flow will help to touch off weak WAA. Expect 850mb temperatures to climb to near 8C by early Tuesday morning. This, in addition to increasing mid/upper level cloud cover should help to keep temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than this morning. Still, much of the interior UP should be able to drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s, while some of the typically cooler spots (throughout the interior-west and north-central UP) fall further into the mid 30s. Will not rule out some patchy frost yet again. Patchy fog will also be possible with light southerly winds over the land tonight. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 413 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Starting tonight, mid level troughing will broadly extend from Hudson Bay down to the Lower Mississippi Valley with strong ridging over the Rockies. At the sfc, a ~1007mb low will be positioned over Lower MI. As the ridge shifts east tonight and Wednesday, the trough directly over the Great Lakes shifts east and the lower trough forms a closed low forms over the Lower Mississippi Valley. The sfc low follows an embedded shortwave, taking a northeast track through Lower MI and over Lake Huron. As a result, some light showers are possible east of Munising and Fairport tonight. Outside the mostly cloudy skies in the far east, partly cloudy skies are likely overnight where dry weather persists; patchy fog may develop late where there is better clearing. Lows settle into the 40s to low 50s, warmer in the east where there is more cloud cover. Dry weather returns to the CWA by Wednesday morning as the trough pushes east through northern Ontario and ridging progresses eastward over the Northern Plains. Ridging becomes centered over the Great Lakes by Friday as the closed low continues spinning over the south; the tropical system begins to interact with the closed low Thursday night/Friday. Although there is still plenty of uncertainty with those two features to the south over the weekend, high pressure and ridging likely will keep us dry the rest of the week and much of the weekend too. Thus, opted to remove all NBM PoPs from the CWA until Sunday afternoon, leaving the rest in for model uncertainty. Some high level clouds may advect north from the tropical system over the weekend. Further out, there is some agreement in a mid level trough moving east along international border early next week. This would send a low pressure system northeast off the northern Rockies Sunday night/Monday to northern Ontario on Tuesday, bringing the next best shot at showers. Otherwise, some additional fog development is possible Wednesday night/Thursday morning across the UP. Model soundings show a stronger inversion with low level moisture and winds become calm under mostly clear skies. Temps trend to well above normal again by the latter part of the week (highs in the 70s and lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s). A few spots hitting 80 can`t be ruled out Thursday through Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 VFR conditions for the duration of the TAF period with ridging over the region. Midlevel cloud cover fills in late tonight into Tuesday morning as a shortwave trough moves through the Lower Midwest. && .MARINE... Issued at 413 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Southeast winds gradually tapper off this morning before backing east in the afternoon. A few gusts around 20 kts are possible over the east half of the lake early this morning. Although a low pressure system tracks through Lower MI today and northeast across Lake Huron tonight, winds are expected to remain below 20 kts as they become westerly by Wednesday. From there, high pressure looks to dominate the forecast keeping winds at or below 20 kts the remainder weekend; unusually benign weather for this time of year. The next shot for winds to increase above 20 kts holds off until early next week when a low pressure system tracks to the north of the Great Lakes. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM...Jablonski AVIATION...Voss MARINE...Jablonski