331
FXUS06 KWBC 291945
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 04 - 08 2024

Today`s model solutions are in good agreement on a moderately amplified 500-hPa
circulation pattern across North America during the 6-10 day period. The manual
500-hPa height blend is based on the 0Z ensemble means from the GEFS, ECMWF,
and Canadian ensemble models. The manual blend predicts an amplified trough and
negative 500-hPa height anomalies over Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska. A ridge
and positive 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted over the western contiguous
U.S. (CONUS). Ensemble mean model forecasts from the GEFS and ECMWF predict
positive 500-hPa height anomalies over the northeastern CONUS at the start of
the 6-10 day period and negative 500-hPa height anomalies, associated with a
developing trough, later in the period. Near zero 500-hPa height anomalies are
predicted over the Southeast in the 6-10 day mean manual blend, while positive
anomalies are predicted over the Northeast.

Enhanced chances for above-normal temperatures are predicted over most of the
CONUS due to the predicted mid-level ridge and generally positive 500-hPa
height anomalies, and supported by most dynamical model temperature forecast
tools. Probabilities favoring above-normal temperatures exceed 80 precent for
parts of the central Great Basin. Probabilities for below-normal temperatures
are enhanced over western and southern Alaska, including the Aleutians and
Southeast Alaska, under the predicted trough and enhanced precipitation.
Near-normal temperatures are favored for Hawaii, where temperature forecast
tools are in disagreement.

Above-normal precipitation is favored for most of Mainland Alaska and Southeast
Alaska, with southerly flow ahead of a predicted trough over the Gulf of
Alaska. A predicted anomalous mid-level ridge favors below-normal precipitation
from parts of the southern Oregon and northern California coasts across the
northern Great Basin and extending eastward to portions of the western Northern
Great Plains. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored from eastern New
Mexico and much of Texas into the Southern Plains and Ohio Valley, consistent
with most dynamical model precipitation forecasts. Median precipitation
accumulation predictions by the precipitation consolidation tool are as little
as one or two millimeters during the 6-10 day period in semi-arid regions of
the Southwest. However, any precipitation in arid regions would be considered
above-normal. Above-normal precipitation is also favored for the Great Lakes
region and the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions, consistent with most
dynamical model precipitation tools. Probabilities of below-normal
precipitation are slightly enhanced across Hawaii, consistent with the
consolidation precipitation forecast tool.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 35% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 35% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to
good agreement among model solutions and forecast temperature and precipitation
tools.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 06 - 12 2024

Ensemble mean solutions for the 8-14 day period 500-hPa height forecast are
consistent with the overall mid-level circulation pattern across North America
in the 6-10 day period forecast. 500-hPa heights rise over Mainland Alaska
during the 8-14 day period, with the center of negative 500-hPa height
anomalies shifting southward into the North Pacific. An amplified ridge and
associated positive 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted over the western
half of the CONUS in the manual blend, while a trough and negative 500-hPa
height anomalies are predicted to develop over the eastern CONUS during week 2.

Below-normal temperatures continue to be favored for southern areas of Alaska,
including the Aleutians and Southeast Alaska, associated with the predicted
trough over the Gulf of Alaska. Above normal temperatures are slightly favored
for northern Mainland Alaska, consistent with most temperature tools including
the consolidation. A predicted ridge over the western CONUS and positive
500-hPa height anomalies favor above-normal temperatures for the western CONUS,
with probabilities exceeding 80 percent over parts of the Great Basin, as in
the 6-10 day period. Below-normal temperatures are favored over most of the
eastern CONUS, under a predicted trough during the period. Above-normal
temperatures continue to be likely for much of the Gulf Coast region,
consistent with dynamical model forecast tools. Above-normal temperatures are
slightly favored for parts of the Northeast under southerly flow ahead of the
predicted trough, and consistent with temperature forecast tools. Near-normal
temperatures continue to be favored for Hawaii, where temperature forecast
tools are in disagreement.

Above-normal precipitation continues to be slightly favored for most of Alaska,
consistent with most dynamical model forecast tools, and under southerly flow.
Below-normal precipitation is favored for the northern tier of the CONUS from
the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains, under a predicted ridge. Above
normal precipitation continues to be slightly favored from eastern New Mexico
and much of Texas into parts of the Central Plains, consistent with most
dynamical model precipitation forecasts. Median precipitation accumulation
predictions by the precipitation consolidation tool are as little as one or two
millimeters during the period in semi-arid regions of the Southwest.
Above-normal precipitation is favored for much of the northeastern CONUS, ahead
of a predicted trough. Near- to below-normal precipitation is favored for the
Southeast, consistent with the precipitation consolidation. Below-normal
precipitation is favored across Hawaii, consistent with the consolidation
precipitation forecast tool.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 35% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 35% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to
consistent evolution of the forecast pattern among ensemble mean model
forecasts.

FORECASTER: D Collins

Notes:


Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below


The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.


The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
June 20.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
19660514 - 19660520 - 20030513 - 20040529 - 19550527


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
19660516 - 20030513 - 20040529 - 19840528 - 19890520


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jun 04 - 08 2024

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    B     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jun 06 - 12 2024

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    B    B     S DAKOTA    B    B
NEBRASKA    B    N     KANSAS      B    N     OKLAHOMA    N    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    N
ARKANSAS    B    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   B    N
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    B    N
INDIANA     B    N     OHIO        B    N     KENTUCKY    B    N
TENNESSEE   B    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  B    N
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$