838
FXUS64 KMRX 021728
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
128 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1148 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Forecast is on track this morning with rain showers moving across
the region through the early afternoon. Convection should be
primarily across the eastern portions of the forecast area later
this afternoon, generally east of I-75, with rain showers and
embedded thunderstorms. With limited instability, severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Key Messages:

1. Breezy winds continue across the east TN mountains and foothills
through late morning, with gusts up to 35 mph.

2. Scattered to widespread showers, and scattered storms, are
expected today. Skies begin to clear west of I-75 by late
afternoon.

Discussion:

30 to 35 kt winds at 850 mb will continue to produce breezy winds
across the east TN mountains and foothills through at least mid
morning. Wind gusts up to 35 mph are expected.

A shortwave is currently moving into the area this morning and
producing light and scattered showers. Coverage of showers and
storms should increase to our west by mid morning. Then, scattered
to widespread showers and storms will move across the area
through the day as the shortwave moves marches through. Soundings
continue to show 1000 to 1500 J/Kg MLCAPE. Effective shear still
ranges from 15 to 20 kts so perhaps enough to keep convection
loosely organized but non severe, just general thunder. Areas west
of I-75 should begin to see clearing by late afternoon as precip
moves east. Most areas will see less than 0.25 inches. However,
any location that receives a thunderstorm could pick up a quick
0.5 to 0.75 inches of rain.

The bulk of the precip should be finished by early evening for the
majority of the area. This is due to the shortwave exiting east and
drier air beginning to build in from the west. However, lingering
moisture will likely keep at least iso/sct showers in through
midnight east of I-75, especially across northeast TN, southwest VA,
southwest NC, and the east TN mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Key Messages:

1. Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms exist throughout the
extended. Best chance/highest coverage is expected Wednesday and
Thursday.

2. Above normal temperatures will trend slightly cooler late week
and into the weekend.

Discussion:

Shortwave ridging will limit coverage of a more diurnal trend in
showers & storms for Monday, The best chances(30-40%) will generally
be focused across higher terrain of the East Tennessee mountains.
Model derived soundings from convective allowing models suggest
MLCAPE will be limited to near 500J/kg or less. No concerns for any
severe weather as a result.

Vort lobes will swing across the area associated with additional
disturbances Tuesday into the late week, allowing for daily chances
of showers and storms to persist. Will note that model guidance has
generally trended downward, with Tuesday looking more like typical
summertime diurnally driven activity. An additional frontal boundary
will approach the region Wednesday into Thursday and result in
heightened coverage of showers and storms. Ensemble guidance trends
towards increasing instability with this activity so perhaps
stronger storms with gusty winds and small hail cannot be ruled out.
Based off recent soundings, Wednesday seems to be the most likely
day to keep an eye on for potential severe threat. Additionally,
PWAT hovering around 1.7" may pose a threat for locally heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding concerns. Still some timing
discrepancies among models however, and timing will play an
important role in the aforementioned potential hazards. Given there
are no significant jet influences across our area(they remain to our
north-northwest), overnight arrival of the main frontal forcing
would lead to less available energy for storms to work with. Will
continue with low probability wording for the time being.

Continued uncertainty remains into the weekend as some models depict
lingering rain chances and others mostly dry. Slightly cooler
conditions are expected in a post-frontal air mass for the weekend
as well, though weak frontal characteristics suggest only a few
degrees difference from mid-late week temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Rain showers will continue to move east this afternoon with
generally clearing conditions from west to east. There is a low
chance of a thunderstorm in the vicinity of terminals this
afternoon, but with the probability only around 10 percent, have
left this out of the TAF at this time. The highest risk of a
thunderstorm this afternoon, around 20 percent, will be at CHA.
With clearing sky conditions tonight, especially near CHA and TYS,
widespread fog and low cloud development is expected across the
valley with MVFR and IFR impacts by Monday morning. Conditions
will improve to VFR by 14 to 15z Monday morning. Winds remain
light.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             82  66  87  67 /  70  10  10   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  78  63  85  64 /  80  20  10   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       77  63  85  64 /  80  20  10   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              76  61  81  61 /  80  30  30   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....KRS
AVIATION...JB