014
FXUS64 KMRX 301911
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
311 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Key Messages:

1. Great weather to continue.

Discussion:

What a beautiful day! Wow. Satellite shows a spreading cu field over
much of the area. HREF thinks only very little chances for clouds of
any deck through the next 24 hours. Dry weather is continuing in
part thanks to the incoming ridge, with building heights and the
surface ridge already in place helping to keep things quiet. The
dry atmosphere, with PWATs at or below the 10th percentile for
this time of year, will allow for good radiational cooling
overnight. Morning lows will dip into the 40s in northeastern
Tennessee and southwestern Virginia, which aren`t records but we
will take it with June knocking on the door. Tomorrow the 850mb
temperatures look to be a little warmer, and thus high temps in
the afternoon will be slightly warmer than today was.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Key Messages:

1. Dry weather will continue Friday night.

2. Chances for showers and thunderstorms start to creep back into
the region starting Saturday afternoon. Rain chances to continue
through the end of the period.

Discussion:

We start the period with an upper level ridge over the region, and
an upper low to our west. The upper low will become an open wave as
it lifts northeast Friday night and Saturday, with the axis of the
filling trough moving across our area Saturday night. Moisture will
slowly increase ahead of this system, and some showers will begin
moving in during the day Saturday at least for the southwestern half
of the area before spreading across the remainder of the area during
the night. While the operational NAM looks to be an outlier on the
high side as is often the case, the ensemble data and other model
sources generally suggest there will be very limited convective
energy available Saturday into Saturday night but perhaps enough for
a few rumbles of thunder. By Sunday models suggest there will be a
bit more convective energy available, and additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected although the coverage will be influenced
by how quickly the wave exits to our east and weak short wave
ridging begins to build in.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be in the forecast for
the remainder of the period, as we do not see any significant drying
and additional upper level short waves move across.  Details are
unclear given the typical model difficulties in handling these types
of features in the longer ranges.  GEFS ensemble data shows modest
median SBCAPE values overall, although values do increase a bit for
the latter periods (as does the spread), and mean deep layer shear
is generally weak. While a few strong to severe storms may occur,
right now the severe storm threat looks to be on the low side
overall during the period. Models continue to suggest a significant
cold front may move in sometime near the end of the period, but
details and timing are still quite uncertain.

High temperatures will start out Saturday and Sunday near to
slightly below normal, but then will generally be above normal for
the latter periods.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

High pressure providing for lighter winds today, VFR region wide
through the period. Any gusts this afternoon will calm tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             58  86  64  82 /   0   0   0  30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  54  81  58  81 /   0   0   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       55  81  58  81 /   0   0   0  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              48  77  50  80 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wellington/Diegan
AVIATION...Wellington