640
FXUS64 KMRX 281518
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1118 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1053 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Morning update to remove fog in a few zone groups and update
temperatures and dew points of the gridded forecast. Late this
morning skies are sunny to mostly sunny across the forecast area.
A cooler morning with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Dew points
have started to drop behind Mondays cold front and should drop
more later today. Short term models bring weak shortwave energy
southeast from the Ohio Valley into eastern KY, extreme northern
TN and southwest VA by early evening. Isolated showers and a few
thunderstorms should develop at that time just north of the CWA
but in only a few spots in VA or TN so don`t think coverage will
be enough to include in forecast. Will reevaluate whether to add
in with afternoon forecast. Highs today should be similar to
Monday central and southern area, low to mid 80s but a few
degrees cooler in NE TN and SW VA, mid to upper 70s with a little
more cloud cover there.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 236 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Key Message:

1. A few isolated showers are possible early this morning, along
with patchy fog.

2. Mostly clear skies and quiet weather on tap for today.

Discussion:

Currently a few isolated showers are developing off of some outflow
boundaries from weak convection Monday evening. As they move into
the eastern Tennessee Valley they`re encountering an increase in
instability leading to a quick uptick in convection, however no
lightning has been recorded early this morning. With the mostly
clear skies some patchy fog is developing in the river valleys and
locations that received heavy downpours over the past few days.
Expect the patchy fog to quickly dissipate after the sun rises this
morning.

The remainder of the day should be fairly pleasant with mostly sunny
skies and temperatures very similar to what we experienced on
Monday. However dew point values will be much lower with the drier
air from the northwest moving into the area, lowering relative
humidity values over the southern Appalachians.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 236 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Key Messages:

1. Dry weather will continue through at least Friday with highs a
few degrees below normal.

2. Chances for showers and thunderstorms start to creep back into
the region Saturday afternoon. Low rain chances will continue on
Sunday into Monday.

Discussion:

In the upper levels, a trough will be over the East Coast bringing
northwest flow overhead until a ridge builds in on Friday. On
Saturday, a more chaotic pattern moves in with a series of
shortwaves likely to move through the region through Monday. At the
surface, high pressure remains over the region. Dry weather will
continue through Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon, low
chances for showers and thunderstorms start to return. Rain chances
will continue through Monday. Rain chances will be day and night but
fairly low around 30 to 40 percent. Timing can probably be nailed
down better as it gets closer. The weekend will likely not be a wash
out and I wouldn`t exactly call it a wet pattern but a few passing
showers and storms can be expected.

Slightly below normal temps are expected through Friday with lows in
the 50s and highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Patchy fog will dissipate very quickly this morning leading to
generally clear skies with increasing westerly winds throughout
the day. Generally VFR conditions are expected for the next 24
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             85  60  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  81  57  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       81  56  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              77  54  75  50 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TD
LONG TERM....McD
AVIATION...