963
FXUS66 KMTR 230952
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
252 AM PDT Thu May 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1225 PM PDT Wed May 22 2024

Summer-like pattern to persist through Thursday. Temperatures are
forecast to dip below seasonal averages this weekend as an upper
level trough impacts the region. Temperatures begin to warm Sunday
through the next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM PDT Thu May 23 2024

Patchy stratus is currently located along the Santa Cruz coastline
and extending into portions of Monterey, San Benito, and Santa Clara
counties. Stratus coverage may extend a bit farther into Monterey
Bay and up the San Mateo coastline but is not expected to expand too
far inland. The Fort Ord Profiler shows the top of the marine layer
around 1600-1800 feet which is fairly comparable to the depth of the
marine layer yesterday. Given persistence, this helps increase
confidence that any stratus that develops will stay along the
coastline and portions of the Monterey Bay. Overcast conditions are
expected to clear out by late morning/early afternoon with some
potential for scattered clouds to persist throughout the remainder
of the day. Widespread stratus coverage will return fairly early in
the evening throughout much of the Bay Area and Central Coast as
onshore flow increases and a weak surface low pressure system
approaches the coast.

As broad upper level troughing continues and offshore
flow weakens, temperatures will continue to cool Thursday with high
temperatures on average 1 to 3 degrees cooler than those observed on
Wednesday. Across the interior, temperatures will be seasonal with
highs generally in the 70s to low 80s but, along the coast, below
average temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s persist. Minor heat
risk continues for portions of the Bay Area and Salinas Valley.
Individuals who are extremely sensitive to heat should remember to
stay hydrated while outdoors and to take breaks as needed. Slightly
drier RH values persist inland during the day on Thursday before
higher RH values and increased moisture return inland with this next
weak system.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 AM PDT Thu May 23 2024

A weak low pressure system will move inland Friday into Saturday and
bring widespread below average temperatures, increased stratus
coverage, and some potential for light drizzle in coastal areas.
Most inland locations will see temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below
average but some may see more significant drops with high
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below average. High temperatures
throughout the interior will be in the 60s with a few areas of
elevated terrain potentially reaching the low 70s. Meanwhile on the
coast, temperatures will struggle to make it out of the upper 50s
and into the lower 60s Friday and Saturday. Ensemble and hi-res
guidance continue to suggest light drizzle, particularly in the
Monterey Bay region, is likely along the coast with non-impactful
accumulations typically less than 0.1". By Monday, shortwave ridging
will build over the West Coast with inland temperatures warming into
the upper 70s to low 80s and coastal temperatures into the upper 50s
to mid 60s.

If you are not a fan of the cooler weather we have been having, you
are in luck! Updated CPC graphics show above average temperatures
will become increasingly likely by early June. During this same time
frame, long term guidance is showing upper level ridging building
and, for the most part, lingering over the West Coast. Given that
this scenario is still a ways out, we will have to wait and see how
guidance continues to trend and how the forecast evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 916 PM PDT Wed May 22 2024

VFR through the TAF Period for all but the Monterey Bay, which will
see moments MVFR CIGs into the night, but with some breaks in
between. Expect surface winds to stay breezy to gusty into the
late night before reducing. Winds aloft stay strong over APC while
surface winds ease, leading to LLWS concerns. Gusty winds build
again into Thursday afternoon but reduce again into that night.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Expect moderate
to breezy winds through the night. Another round of gusty
westerly winds arrive Thursday afternoon with peak gusts around
28 kts. These winds reduce into the early night, but stay moderate
for the rest of the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO

Monterey Bay Terminals...Moments of MVFR CIGs over the terminals
into the night, with some breaks in between. Expect moderate
westerly winds overnight with slight increases of northwest winds
expected into Thursday afternoon. Winds reduce and become more
westerly as MVFR CIGs arrive Thursday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 855 PM PDT Wed May 22 2024

The strong and gusty winds continue over the coastal waters with
gale force gusts across the outer waters and the northern inner
waters. Expect hazardous conditions and steeper wind waves with
these strong winds. The pattern changes and winds are expected to
reduce into the weekend, but the outer waters look to remain
breezy through the forecast period.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea