217
FXUS66 KMTR 312345
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
445 PM PDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1255 PM PDT Fri May 31 2024

Cooler conditions begin tomorrow with temperatures near seasonal
averages across most of the region. Warmer temperatures return
Tuesday with moderate HeatRisk through the interior.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1255 PM PDT Fri May 31 2024

Coastal stratus is degrading across the Central Coast and remains
mostly intact along the Big Sur coast and in patches near Marina and
Santa Cruz. Elsewhere, skies remain clear through the day with
stratus returning overnight across the coast and into Monterey Bay,
the Morgan Hill-Hollister corridor, and the East Bayshore. High
temperatures will continue to be above seasonal averages today with
the interior valleys seeing temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s,
the Bayshore hovering in the upper 60s to mid 70s, and the coast
seeing highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Lows tomorrow morning will
generally hover in the upper 40s to mid 50s, with some of the higher
peaks reaching into the low 60s. High resolution models are
suggesting a chance for some coastal drizzle early Saturday morning,
but any accumulations will be minimal (less than a tenth of an
inch).

A cooling trend should start on Saturday as we feel the fringe
effects of a shortwave trough coming through the Pacific Northwest,
allowing the building of a deeper marine layer. Temperatures will
cool to around the seasonal average for most of the region, with
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s inland, the mid 60s to lower 70s
along the Bayshore, and the mid 50s to lower 60s along the coast.
The interior valleys of the North bay and southern Central Coast
remain relatively warm as they retain high temperatures into the mid
to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1255 PM PDT Fri May 31 2024

Temperatures remain close to seasonal averages through Monday as a
larger trough builds and comes into the Pacific Northwest, with the
peak effects on Monday when the North Bay valleys get a day of
relief as their highs fall to a seasonal upper 70s to lower 80s in
the region.

A warming trend begins on Tuesday as an upper level ridge builds
into the western United States. Model ensemble clusters continue to
show some disagreement on the strength and location of the ridge
axis, leading to considerable uncertainty on just how hot it will
get across the region. As of now the latest forecast shows highs
peaking on Wednesday, from the 90s into the lower 100s across the
interior regions while the coastal areas see highs in the mid 60s to
mid 70s. A moderate HeatRisk is in place for the inland regions,
with a moderate risk of heat-related illnesses in most people
sensitive to heat.

CPC products continue to suggest that temperatures above seasonal
averages continue through the middle of June.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 436 PM PDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR across most of the area with some stratus along the coast and
Bay shoreline tonight. Uncertain how much the stratus would affect
Bay Area terminals, but seems certain for coastal terminals. IFR
cigs where there is stratus as the marine layer remains compressed
by high pressure aloft. Gusty NW winds diminish overnight before
increasing again Saturday afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through this evening with low confidence in
stratus return overnight. Left out of the TAF for now, but may
require the addition of MVFR/IFR cigs should confidence increase
this evening. Any cigs that do form are expected to be cleared to
VFR by about the 16Z hour. Gusty onshore flow through the San
Bruno gap returns Saturday afternoon with gusts 27-33 kts.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...High confidence in IFR cigs overnight
tonight as the marine stratus currently along the coasts moves
inland. All terminals expected to clear to VFR around the 16-17Z
hours as stratus pulls back to the coast. Breezy onshore flow
returns Saturday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 849 AM PDT Fri May 31 2024

Breezy to gusty northwest winds will continue over the outer
waters into the weekend with gale force winds expected late Friday
and into Saturday. This will cause a hazardous marine environment.
Significant wave heights will reach up to about 11-12 feet Friday
afternoon, but will begin to reduce today through the remainder
of the weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for SF Bay N
     of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for
     Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 9 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Pinos
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Behringer
MARINE...Murdock

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