Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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330 FXUS63 KOAX 251639 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1139 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable temperatures in the lower 80s with mostly dry conditions are on tap through Monday. - A dry cold front is expected to pass through the area late Monday into early Tuesday and will send temperatures back into the 70s area-wide. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Today through Friday: Water vapor imagery this morning features a high-amplitude ridge over the western half of the CONUS centered over the Four Corners region, with a positively-tilted trough rooted over the Mid- Mississippi Valley extending northeastward towards the eastern Great Lakes. Also creeping northward is tropical storm Helene, which is currently affecting the Yucatan Peninsula and is poised to play a part in the overall synoptic pattern going forward. Taking a look at the surface, the local area has been relatively swept clear from better moisture by the mid/upper trough and associated cold front, while surface high pressure builds eastward from its anchor point over the Colorado area. The main theme of the remaining work week will be the increasing influence of the aforementioned mid-level ridge over the area, resulting in slightly warmer but dry conditions. Looking to the southeastern CONUS, a local maximum of mid-level vorticity will pinch off and swirl over the MO/TN/KY vicinity, keeping the upstream upper pattern rather stagnant while Helene moves northward. Highs over the next three days locally will range from the upper 70s to low 80s, with generally light winds switching southeasterly this afternoon while skies remain mostly clear. This Weekend and Beyond: By late Friday into the weekend, Helene will have made landfall and combined with the aforementioned swirling mid-level low over the southeastern CONUS, beginning its extremely slow drift to the east as the zonal upper jet moves south and increases its influence on that feature. With little westward drift to be found in any of the recent model runs of the deterministic or ensemble variety in that mid/upper low, we`ll find ourselves missing out on any of the wraparound rainfall as we are warded from the better moisture to the east and south. We`re currently maintaining no rainfall in the forecast for the next 7 days, with the main forecast point of note being a dry cold front passage late Monday into Tuesday that will drop temperatures from the low 80s back into the 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1137 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Calm northerly winds will gradually shift clockwise to southerly by 00Z and to southwesterly this evening. Skies will remain mostly clear apart from a few clouds at FL250 this afternoon. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Petersen AVIATION...Wood