340
FXUS63 KOAX 280807
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
307 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions are expected today and tomorrow.
  Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

- Weather patterns gets more active beginning Thursday, with
  daily chances of precipitation across the entire region.

- There is some concern for heavy rainfall and localized
  flooding south of I-80 Thursday afternoon into Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...Today through Tomorrow Night...

With ridging in the upper levels expected to persist in the
central CONUS today and tomorrow, both days will continue to
feature dry and mild weather with temperatures approaching 80
degrees both afternoons. Nighttime lows should largely remain in
the 50s.


...Thursday through Friday...

With the breakdown of central CONUS ridging by the end of the
week, the return of southerly flow at the surface will advect
gulf moisture back into the region. Dewpoints are expected to
rise back into the 60s by Thursday afternoon. Aloft, the
longwave pattern will favor troughing over the western CONUS
with somewhat zonal flow over the Plains. On Thursday, an
embedded low-amplitude shortwave will slowly move out into the
central Plains. At the surface, a slow moving cold front will be
draped across central Nebraska, oriented north to south. This
surface front in addition to the upper-level disturbance will
provide sufficient forcing for ascent favorable for widespread
convection to develop by Thursday afternoon. These storms are
expected to last overnight Thursday and into the day on Friday.
Heavy rain will be a concern with these storms, with PWAT in the
GEFS and ECMWF Ens somewhere between 1 and 1.5 inches. In
addition to this, the slow moving nature of the front will bring
the potential for any given location to receive heavy rain for
an extended period of time. This will bring the concern for
flooding Thursday night into Friday morning, particularly south
of I-80 where PWAT is higher. Current precipitation chances are
70 to 90 percent across the region during this time period. The
threat for severe weather at this time remains low, though gusty
winds and small hail cannot be ruled out in the stronger storms.

...Saturday through Monday Night...

Somewhat zonal flow with embedded low-amplitude shortwaves
appears to be the favored upper-level pattern going into the end
of this forecast period. At the surface, dew points will remain
well into the 60s, potentially approaching 70 degrees by the
beginning of next week. This will bring daily chances (30 to 50
percent) for thunderstorms beginning in the afternoon and
potentially lasting into the overnight hours. While there is
potential for some of these storms to be on the stronger side,
substantial uncertainty in the timing and strength of upper
level disturbances in addition to presence/placement of any
surface boundaries precludes any further discussion on severe
weather potential at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with some cumulus
around 7000 to 9000 ft agl by late Tuesday morning. Winds will
be out of the northwest, light overnight, but gust 20 to 25 kts
through Tuesday afternoon. Speeds decrease by the evening with
direction becoming northeasterly.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Darrah
AVIATION...CA