Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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758 FXUS63 KOAX 262036 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 336 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A strong storm or two is possible in western Iowa this afternoon, and in portions of eastern Nebraska this evening. Hail and/or locally strong wind gusts are the main hazards. - Gusty winds from decaying thunderstorms may spread east across the entire forecast area from as early as 02-03z to 06z. - Dry, but breezy for Memorial Day. - Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast in the Wednesday night-Saturday time frame. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Tonight. Three subtle shortwave disturbances near the area will provide enough large-scale forcing for ascent to produce chances for precipitation over our region. The first disturbance over northwest Iowa could produce isolated showers and thunderstorms over southwest Iowa over the next few hours. Instability remains highest over western Iowa however wind shear is almost non- existent across the entire area. Another weak wave across northeast Kansas continues to produce a few showers along the Kansas/Nebraska border and a few of these showers could spread into far southeast Nebraska. An upstream disturbance currently over southwestern South Dakota will continue to move east this evening. Showers and thunderstorms have developed across northwestern Nebraska in advance of this wave and latest CAM consensus shows these spreading eastward into northeast Nebraska by 01-03z. These poorly organized storms quickly decay and as a result, push out gusty, possibly near-severe, winds from 02-06z as the decaying storms continue eastward through the CWA. Am only mentioning a < 20% chance of thunderstorms through the evening and late tonight with these western storms, as a brief uptick in wind gusts is the main hazard. Memorial Day. A northern Plains shortwave trough is forecast to pass the region to our northeast on Memorial Day. Gusty northwest low-level winds should push gusts by afternoon into the 25-35 mph range. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies are expected with highs in the upper 70s to around 80. Tuesday and Wednesday. Dry weather is expected with highs generally in the 70s to low 80s as weak mid-level ridging moves over the nation`s mid-section. Thursday through Sunday. This time period looks slightly more active as a strong upper trough over the Canadian Rockies moves east/southeast across the northern Plains into next weekend. There remain some discrepancies on timing and just how far south this trough is able to influence the central Plains. There is consensus in strong low-level moisture return with surface dewpoints ranging in the 60s. Highs through this period should top out in the 70s and low 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Diurnally driven cumulus clouds continue to develop across the forecast area this afternoon. Mostly VFR conditions are expected but cannot rule out a passing MVFR ceiling throughout the afternoon. A few scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon, mostly across southwest Iowa through sunset. Latest CAM output continues to suggest weak thunderstorm development across western Nebraska after 03z. As these decay and spread east, they could bring some light rain as well as gusty winds as the storms fall apart and spread east. Did included a tempo group at all sites for that late this evening. Otherwise, northwesterly surface winds will prevail with VFR conditions expected all of Monday. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kern AVIATION...Kern