827
FXUS63 KOAX 261105
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
605 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong storm or two is possible in western Iowa this
  afternoon, and in northeast Nebraska this evening. Hail
  and/or locally strong wind gusts are the main hazards.

- Dry, but breezy for Memorial Day.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast in the
  Wednesday night-Saturday time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.Today and Tonight:

An area of trailing stratiform precipitation ongoing across
portions of southeast NE as of 330 AM is expected to shift to
the southeast prior to daybreak with some decrease in clouds
later this morning. By this afternoon, daytime heating coupled
with cold temperatures aloft attendant to a shortwave trough in
the vicinity will contribute to steep lapse rates and pockets of
moderate instability. And, despite the absence of any notable
boundaries in the area, latest CAM output suggests the potential
for isolated thunderstorm development over portions of western
IA. Vertical shear is not expected to be particularly strong;
however, the thermodynamic environment will be supportive of a
few strong to briefly severe storms capable of hail up to
quarter size and/or wind gusts of 50-60 mph.

Other showers and thunderstorms approaching the area from the
northwest could move into portions of northeast NE this evening
with some model signal for locally strong wind gusts.

Highs today will be in the mid to upper 70s with lows tonight in
the low to mid 50s.


.Memorial Day:

A shortwave trough passing to our northeast will contribute to
breezy conditions, especially across northeast NE into west-
central IA where northwest winds could gust to 35 mph.
Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly sunny with highs in
the mid 70s to around 80.


.Tuesday and Wednesday:

Another shortwave trough will glance the region Tuesday with the
models suggesting the best precipitation potential remaining to
the immediate east of the area. By Wednesday, the models
indicate a midlevel ridge progressing from the Rockies into the
Great Plains. No precipitation is expected with daytime
temperatures in the 70s.


.Thursday through Saturday:

The 00z global ensembles are in relatively good agreement in
suggesting that a vigorous midlevel trough will track from the
northern Rockies into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley.
Low-level moisture will increase ahead of a slow-moving surface
front, yielding an unstable air mass which could support
multiple rounds of thunderstorms during this time period. While
some severe weather appears possible, specific details remain
uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 548 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Winds today will generally be out of the west and weak (under 10
knots). There will be the potential for isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa
this afternoon and evening (all TAF sites). However, confidence
in the forecast is not high enough to include as FM group at any
one TAF site, and the time period of thunderstorm risk is too
far out to include TEMPOs into the TAFs. As such, TAF sites are
advised to be aware of potential thunderstorms between 20Z and
04Z this evening. Some storms may have small hail and gusty
winds up to 50 knots.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Darrah