Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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266 FXUS63 KOAX 241050 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 550 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms ending early this morning, then windy with northwest winds, but below wind advisory criteria. - Quiet and pleasant weather Friday and Saturday. - Thunderstorm chances increase to 60 to 90 percent Saturday night with a slight risk of severe storms south of I80, with a 15 to 30 percent chance for wind and hail. Also a slight risk of excessive heavy rainfall. - Still a marginal risk of severe storms in extreme southeast NE and southwest IA Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 355 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 The line of severe storms is curring moving through western IA and extreme southeast NE, and will exit our coverage area within the hour. Rain and rumbles of thunder continue behind the main line, but will continue to march out of the area by 14-15z. Afterward northwest winds will blow at 15 to 30 mph today, but gusts remaining below advisory criteria. High temperatures will range in the upper 60s in northeast NE, to the lower 70s south of I80. Quiet and pleasant weather continues Saturday, with winds switching to the southeast at 10 to 20 mph, and high temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 70s. The next chance for rain comes Saturday night into Sunday as the next upper trough and associated frontal boundary moves into the region. Pops do increase to 60 to 90 percent Saturday night, with the highest values south of I80. This is also coincident with the severe risk area where SPC has placed a slight risk for severe storms with a 15 to 30 percent chance for damaging winds and large hail, and WPC generally has the area in a slight risk for excessive heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts Saturday night could range one quarter to one half inch for northeast NE, and three quarters to one and one quarter inch for southeast NE and southwest IA. Lingering thundershowers will be in the area Sunday morning behind the first system, but additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible continue Sunday night into Monday as another short wave moves out of the northern Rockies. Temperatures will still be decent Sunday in the lower to middle 70s, but a northwest wind at 15 to 20 mph and the 40-60% chance of rain may put a damper on at least this day of the Memorial holiday weekend. For Memorial Day itself, we are hopeful that the weather mostly pushes east of the local area, with high temperatures again in the lower to middle 70s. Dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday, with rain chances back in the forecast for Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 545 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 A few sprinkles or light rain showers may linger through 13Z across southeast Iowa and southwest Nebraska. This should stay south and east of TAF sites. Otherwise, gusty winds up to 25 knots will be possible between 15 and 22Z at all TAF sites, particularly at KOFK. Have opted to keep gusts out of prevailing group in TAFs due to expected low frequency of these higher gusts. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeWald AVIATION...Darrah