943
FXUS63 KOAX 272313
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
613 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy today with northwest winds gusting to 30 to 35 mph.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast from
  Thursday through the weekend. Severe weather potential
  remains uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Today - Wednesday:

Mostly sunny skies this afternoon apart from some fair-weather
cumulus. We have northwesterly winds across eastern Nebraska
and western Iowa today as a ridge starts to build over the
Rockies. Northwesterly flow is helping to keep temperatures mild
with highs in the upper 70s this afternoon. We`ll see this ridge
continue to build over the next couple days with northwesterly
flow keeping dry, mild weather forecast through Wednesday.
Afternoon highs remain in the upper 70s, and overnight lows drop
down into the low 50s.

Wednesday Night - Sunday:

The upper-level ridge over the Rockies shifts off to the east on
Thursday as another upper-level trough pushes into the PacNW.
This brings back our good ole` friend, zonal flow turning more
southwesterly by the weekend. This will bring back chances for
showers and storms starting late Wednesday night with the return
of the low-level jet bringing in moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico. A shortwave will move through the area triggering
showers and storms starting overnight with chances of 60 to 80
percent continuing through Thursday and Thursday night.

The active pattern continues into Friday with another shortwave
trough and surface low bringing more chances for showers and
storms, around 30 to 40 percent. Ensembles diverge on details
Saturday and Sunday which is why precipitation chances continue
to decline through the weekend, but pattern certainly supports
additional chances for showers and storms through the weekend.
With a shift to a more southwesterly flow regime Saturday and
Sunday, we do see temperatures increase with highs climbing into
the low-to-mid 80s.

With storm chances comes the question about severe potential.
Right now nothing in particular looks like it will be severe,
but that may change when details become more clear as the
weekend approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period passing cumulus
around 7000 to 9000 ft early this evening and again by Tuesday
afternoon. Winds will remain northwesterly with gusts of 20 to
25 kts early this evening, lesser speeds overnight, and similar
gusts by late morning/early afternoon Tuesday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...CA