954
FXUS63 KOAX 171716
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1216 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures today with highs near 90. A bit cooler on
  Saturday though dry weather continues.

- Increased chances for thunderstorms beginning early Sunday and
  lasting through at least Tuesday. Severe weather will be
  possible at times, especially Sunday evening and Monday.

- The repeated rounds of storms may bring a threat of flash
  flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 419 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

We have mostly clear skies across the area this morning with
temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s. Winds are out of the
south but fairly light. We`ll see increasing winds out of the
southwest through this afternoon with temperatures jumping up
into the upper 80s to around 90 this afternoon as a shortwave
passes through ramping up low-level winds. Increased southerly
flow and little-to-no cloud cover should allow for excellent
mixing which could allow temperatures to even overachieve, so
have leaned on the higher side of guidance for temperatures this
afternoon.

Saturday morning we`ll see a cold front move across the Upper
Plains as an upper-level shortwave trough moves across the
region. The southwesterly flow regime ahead of this system will
keep us too dry for any precipitation with this cold front, but
we will see high temperatures drop down into the upper 70s to
mid 80s and winds shift to northwesterly.

The shortwave trough on Saturday sets us up for a very active
pattern going into early next week with a shift to a
southwesterly upper-level flow regime. This will bring a strong
system through Sunday, with another system on it`s tail moving
through on Monday. We see a ramp up of southerly moisture
advection out ahead of these systems starting across central
Nebraska overnight Saturday night into early Sunday. The low-
level jet expands precip chances eastward by Sunday morning,
with chances for strong to severe storms Sunday evening as we
see a dry line move across the area. Monday we see the surface
low move through, likely just to our southeast, which may limit
the severe potential to far southeast Nebraska and southwest
Iowa.

Tuesday temperatures will be a bit cooler as we see a transition
from northerly flow behind the Monday front to easterly flow out
ahead of the next shortwave. We see the associated surface low
track either across eastern Nebraska or northwest Missouri. A
more northerly track of the surface low would mean another
chance for severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Wednesday, the ensembles start to diverge but we continue to see
low chances for showers and storms. We keep these low PoPs and
temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Winds will prevail southerly through 12Z tomorrow morning at all
TAF sites. Wind gusts up to 35 mph will be possible across
northeast Nebraska (KOFK) until 00Z, but more modest estimates
have been included in TAFs. Between 21Z and 01Z, there is a low
probability of a stray shower or thunderstorms across northeast
Nebraska (KOFK). Current probability of rain is 10 to 20
percent. A wind shift is expected sometime at or just beyond the
TAF forecast period at all TAF sites from southerly to
northwesterly with the passage of a cold front. Will include in
TAFs in subsequent issuance.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Darrah