808
FXUS64 KOHX 010609
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
109 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Quiet evening so far across the mid state, with radar showing some
light showers off to our west moving towards the area. Chances for
rain will increase from west to east this evening and especially
overnight, mainly for areas west of the Plateau. Added minor
adjustments to pops to account for latest guidance, otherwise
forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Visible satellite imagery this morning shows thick cirrus cloud
cover which has held temperatures down into the mid 60s on the
Plateau and the 70s elsewhere. However, this cloud cover is
shifting eastward, and enough sunshine is anticipated this
afternoon to allow highs to reach the 70s and 80s. Low level
moisture has also begun increasing with dewpoints up into the low
60s across our southwest, and this may be enough for a few showers
to pop up by late afternoon into the evening in that area.
However, bulk of rain will arrive overnight and spread eastward
across the midstate through Saturday morning as an upper level
trough shifts eastward from the southern Plains. Activity will
become more scattered by Saturday afternoon/evening, with highest
pops over the west and lowest in the east. Clouds/precip will keep
temperatures down significantly tomorrow, with highs only in the
70s. Forecast soundings for Saturday show unusually strong low
and deep layer shear for early June, but little or no instability,
so our already low severe threat for tomorrow appears even lower
than previous. However, if more instability develops than models
indicate, a strong to possible severe storm could occur during the
day, with a damaging wind or even low-end tornado threat possible
due to the intense low level shear.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will remain
possible around the clock from Saturday night through Tuesday as
weak zonal flow continues aloft and embedded shortwaves move
across the region. Pops will be in the slight to low chance
category during this timeframe as nothing major is apparent, with
temperatures near normal with highs in the 70s/80s and lows in the
60s. By Wednesday into Thursday, a strong upper level trough will
approach from the northwest, bringing more widespread showers and
storms and higher precip chances. In addition, GFS forecasts
PWATs to rise to near the 2 inch mark, indicating potential for
locally heavy rain and some flooding. 12Z guidance continues to
show a cold front moving across the midstate Thursday afternoon,
with cooler and dry weather returning for the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Several admendments probable due to fluctuations in specific
weather elements time evolution not be adequately addresses in
a concise TAF format. Mentioned best 2-3 hr window for tstm
terminal formation 01/21Z-01/24Z. Surface pressure gradient
influences will support gusts up to 25kts thru 02/06Z. Light
showers should become prevalent at all mid state terminals by
01/15Z as showers continue spreading E to W across area. Surface
winds will generally range 8-15kts prevailing mainly from SE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  66  84  66 /  90  60  40  10
Clarksville    73  65  82  64 / 100  50  20   0
Crossville     70  58  76  60 /  70  70  80  10
Columbia       74  65  84  65 / 100  60  30   0
Cookeville     71  61  78  62 /  80  70  70  10
Jamestown      72  59  77  60 /  70  70  60  10
Lawrenceburg   73  65  82  65 /  80  60  30  10
Murfreesboro   74  64  84  64 /  80  60  50  10
Waverly        74  65  84  65 / 100  50  20   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Barnwell
SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....JB Wright