Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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314 FXUS64 KOHX 180516 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1216 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 832 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Water vapor imagery this evening shows a trough to our west over the OK/AR area which will be moving eastward over our area tomorrow. In the meantime, tonight`s 00Z sounding shows a saturated atmosphere with a PWAT of 1.55 inches - not a daily record, but over the 90th percentile for the date. This has resulted in a few sprinkles persisting this evening, and this trend is expected to continue overnight. As this trough approaches, shower activity will become more scattered on Saturday. A few thunderstorms will also be possible, and a few of these may become strong with gusty winds and frequent lightning the main threats. Otherwise, with plenty of moisture, patchy fog and low clouds will be possible tonight. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1119 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Showers continue to lift through Middle Tennessee this morning. Showers are expected to become less numerous this afternoon through the overnight hours. Patchy fog and low clouds will develop overnight along with a couple scattered showers as the trough axis remains to the west of the area. The trough axis will slowly move eastward on Saturday with additional shower activity possible and a couple of storms. The highest rain chances will be along the plateau with lower chances the farther west you go. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1119 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Some patchy fog will be possible again Saturday night, otherwise Saturday night should be mainly dry. A couple of showers can`t be ruled out on Sunday along the plateau but elongated upper ridging will build in from the west with temperatures rebounding into the 80s. Monday and Tuesday continue to look warm with highs getting into the upper 80s and potentially touching 90 degrees. Models have slowed down rain chances from Tuesday night/Wednesday to Wednesday night/Thursday. This means Wednesday will be another warm day with temperatures in the 80s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Low clouds have started to build into the area and we will see MVFR/IFR cigs overnight. We will also see patchy fog at times. Cigs will start to rise tomorrow morning and should return to VFR levels by the afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop late morning and continue into the afternoon. Shower activity will diminish during the evening. Light northerly winds under 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 79 63 86 64 / 80 20 0 0 Clarksville 79 61 85 62 / 70 10 0 0 Crossville 73 58 79 57 / 90 40 0 0 Columbia 79 61 84 61 / 90 30 0 0 Cookeville 75 60 81 59 / 90 30 0 0 Jamestown 73 58 80 57 / 90 40 0 0 Lawrenceburg 79 61 83 62 / 90 30 0 0 Murfreesboro 80 61 85 61 / 80 30 0 0 Waverly 79 61 85 62 / 80 20 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Clements SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Mueller