943
FXUS64 KOHX 311714
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1214 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Visible satellite imagery this morning shows thick cirrus cloud
cover which has held temperatures down into the mid 60s on the
Plateau and the 70s elsewhere. However, this cloud cover is
shifting eastward, and enough sunshine is anticipated this
afternoon to allow highs to reach the 70s and 80s. Low level
moisture has also begun increasing with dewpoints up into the low
60s across our southwest, and this may be enough for a few showers
to pop up by late afternoon into the evening in that area.
However, bulk of rain will arrive overnight and spread eastward
across the midstate through Saturday morning as an upper level
trough shifts eastward from the southern Plains. Activity will
become more scattered by Saturday afternoon/evening, with highest
pops over the west and lowest in the east. Clouds/precip will keep
temperatures down significantly tomorrow, with highs only in the
70s. Forecast soundings for Saturday show unusually strong low
and deep layer shear for early June, but little or no instability,
so our already low severe threat for tomorrow appears even lower
than previous. However, if more instability develops than models
indicate, a strong to possible severe storm could occur during the
day, with a damaging wind or even low-end tornado threat possible
due to the intense low level shear.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will remain
possible around the clock from Saturday night through Tuesday as
weak zonal flow continues aloft and embedded shortwaves move
across the region. Pops will be in the slight to low chance
category during this timeframe as nothing major is apparent, with
temperatures near normal with highs in the 70s/80s and lows in the
60s. By Wednesday into Thursday, a strong upper level trough will
approach from the northwest, bringing more widespread showers and
storms and higher precip chances. In addition, GFS forecasts
PWATs to rise to near the 2 inch mark, indicating potential for
locally heavy rain and some flooding. 12Z guidance continues to
show a cold front moving across the midstate Thursday afternoon,
with cooler and dry weather returning for the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with increasing
high clouds. Winds will generally be easterly to southeasterly.
Rain is expected to move into the area from the west, likely after
midnight and continuing into Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      84  65  77  65 /   0  50  70  70
Clarksville    82  63  75  65 /   0  80  80  60
Crossville     77  57  72  58 /   0  20  50  70
Columbia       84  63  76  64 /  10  60  80  70
Cookeville     79  62  74  60 /   0  20  60  70
Jamestown      77  58  74  58 /   0  10  50  70
Lawrenceburg   83  63  74  64 /  10  60  70  70
Murfreesboro   83  64  77  64 /   0  50  70  70
Waverly        83  63  74  64 /  10  80  80  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....Clements