Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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048 FXUS64 KOHX 281659 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1159 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1159 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Dry conditions will prevail through Wednesday afternoon. Surface high pressure influences will prevail, with a weak cold frontal passage north to south across mid state region on Wednesday starting process of ushering in a colder airmass to our area in association with strong surface high pressure influences building out of southern Canada. Aloft, northwesterly flow will become more pronounced through Wednesday afternoon also. Looks like some moisture will try to work around western and southern portions of our area as Wednesday progresses but not expecting any precipitation in our neck of the woods associated with this anticipated moisture advection pattern as of this time. Highs this afternoon still look to top out in low to mid 80s, upper 70s to around 80 Cumberland Plateau Region. Lows tonight will be on seasonably cool side mainly mid to upper 50s. Highs on Wednesday will start to reflect cold air advection pattern establishment with highs only ranging upper 70s north to lower 80s, mid 70s Cumberland Plateau Region. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1159 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Deepest moisture should remain south of mid state region as Wednesday night into Thursday progresses so not adding any chances of precipitation across our area as of this time. Coolest high temperatures of forecast period will be on Thursday with highs only ranging mid to upper 70s. All in all, coldest night of forecast period will be Thursday Night with lows generally in mid to upper 50s, upper 40s to lower 50s higher elevations of Upper Cumberland Region. Looks like one more dry day will be in store for our area on Friday per upper level ridging influences building across much of eastern CONUS with highs returning back to seasonal normal values. Dry conditions will hang on through Friday evening as upper level ridging influences slowly shift eastward, but as overnight hours progress on Friday Night, shower and thunderstorm chances will once again return to our area with these chances continuing through first part of next week. An initially negatively tilted upper level trough will move across our area as Saturday progresses. Surface high pressure influences will shift to off central Atlantic coastline as first part of next work week progresses, establishing a southerly low level atmospheric flow pattern across our area though first part of next work week. Yet another upper level trough passage is expected Sunday night into Monday. With potentially an upper level low developing in base of upper level troughing influences centered across central MS River Valley as Monday night progresses, and this feature pushing eastward as Tuesday progresses,those showers and thunderstorm chances will continue. Total rainfall amounts Friday Night through Tuesday Afternoon will range from around 0.75" eastern portions to approaching 2.0" southern TN River Valley Region of mid state area. Temperatures will hover around seasonal normal values through weekend. A warm air advection pattern will become increasingly established as first part of next work week progresses with highs mainly in mid 80s, around 80 to lower 80s for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region by Tuesday afternoon. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 VFR conditions will prevail across the area today with scattered cumulus clouds and northwest winds near 10KT. Light winds tonight will allow patchy fog to form mainly at SRB/CSV. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 84 60 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 81 57 78 54 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 77 52 74 50 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 84 58 80 57 / 0 0 10 10 Cookeville 79 54 75 52 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 77 53 74 50 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 83 58 80 57 / 0 0 10 10 Murfreesboro 84 56 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 84 58 79 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JB Wright LONG TERM....JB Wright AVIATION.....13