Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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638 FXUS64 KOHX 230647 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 147 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 What a day. Actually, what a month. We`re enjoying a brief respite from Mother Nature`s ferocity tonight with only a lone thunderstorm across our northwest. A few light showers could sneak across our southern counties through the remainder of this morning, but otherwise, we`re just playing the waiting game for the next round of storms this afternoon. Pretty much all of the same ingredients are in place for this afternoon that were there yesterday: ample instability with values approaching 3000 J/kg, deep layer shear will again be between 25-30 kts, mid-level lapse rates will be around 6.5 C/km, and SRH values are generally below 100 m2/s2. PWAT values will also again be more than sufficient enough for storms to drop very heavy rain. The difference today is, though, that storms will be mostly driven by daytime heating and will perhaps not be quite as organized. Models are a bit all over the place in the evolution of convection. Some show storms congealing into an MCS and pushing through like yesterday`s, while others show more scattered, popcorn style thunderstorms. Regardless of how it evolves, just know the same threats exist: damaging winds, very heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding, and maybe even some hail. Models bring the most action to Middle Tennessee between 12pm-6pm. Once those storms clear the area tonight, a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible overnight into Friday morning. Severe storms are not expected during that time. It will be more of a few rumbles of thunder type deal. As we move into Friday, we will prepare yet again for another line of storms to push through the area that afternoon. The setup looks more organized as a line of storms will push in from the west- northwest. Our environment will still be very unstable and lapse rates look more impressive, which would increase our severe hail potential. Models also show SRH values are a little higher, too, which would increase the chance for tornadoes. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 For the long term, Sunday and Monday are the days that continue to stand out for an all-hazard severe weather setup. We`re still just a little too far out to nail down timing for these days, but the signal remains on the models that severe weather is likely on both of those days. I will once again mention flooding. All of these repeated rounds of not only rain, but very heavy rain, on saturated soils spells flooding potential. This will be something to also keep in mind when thinking about your severe weather plans. Come Tuesday, our upper-air flow will finally transition to a more northerly flow and this will help pull in drier and cooler air as a ridging pattern sets up across the central US. This will bring us a MUCH WELCOMED break from all of this wild weather. Temperatures after Monday`s system move through will be in the upper 70s for most. Stay tuned for updates and remain weather aware! && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 More showers and storms will likely impact the terminals during the forecast period. A scattered shower could impact CKV over the next 2 hours but otherwise, the overnight and morning hours should be dry. CSV will be impacted by MVFR fog through dawn and potentially SRB as well but the remaining terminals will be VFR. Storms are expected to develop to the west early in the afternoon and move eastward impacting the terminals through the afternoon hours. Visibilities will be reduced to MVFR/IFR at times. Activity will move east and dissipate during the evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 83 67 83 68 / 80 50 70 60 Clarksville 81 65 82 67 / 70 50 70 60 Crossville 77 61 77 61 / 90 50 70 60 Columbia 82 65 83 65 / 80 60 70 60 Cookeville 78 62 79 64 / 90 50 70 60 Jamestown 78 61 79 62 / 90 50 70 60 Lawrenceburg 81 66 81 65 / 70 60 70 60 Murfreesboro 83 64 83 65 / 80 50 70 60 Waverly 82 65 82 66 / 70 60 70 60 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baggett LONG TERM....Baggett AVIATION.....Reagan