201
FXUS64 KOHX 191716
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1216 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Warm day ahead. Late this morning, under plentiful sunshine,
temperatures are already pushing through the 70s with a few lower
80s. Skies are mostly sunny and we will continue to warm well into
the 80s.

Upper ridge to move slowly across the mid state through Monday, with
additional ridging moving in on Tuesday. This will keep us on the
toasty side for mid May.  850 mb temps will edge upward a degree or
so by Tuesday afternoon. Looks like upper 80s to near 90 for our
upcoming highs. Overnight lows will generally remain in the 60s.
Afternoon dewpoints will be in the upper 50s to near 60 so the heat
index humidity factor looks close to zero effect.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

In the extended forecast, upper ridge will break down with a quasi
zonal regime prevailing thereafter. A frontal boundary on Wednesday
will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms. The boundary will
stall out and weaken by Thursday, but will continue to serve as a
initiator for further convection.

A warm front will lift north by Saturday with another frontal system
following on Sunday. Thus, shower and thunderstorm chances will ramp
up once again late in the extended period.

As of any severe weather, nothing really jumps out synoptically.
Instability levels do climb but look to be paired with weak shear
and sketchy organizational levels. Currently, we are not outlooked
but the day 4 is active to our west. This has to do with that mid
week frontal system mentioned earlier. Again though, phasing is just
fair to poor by the time the fropa occurs in our neck of the woods.
Otherwise, rainfall amounts over the next 7 days look like just one
to two inches, so not too bad.

For the extended temperatures, looking warm Wednesday ahead of the
boundary. Then, a 5f-8F cool down will follow. Mid to upper 80s will
return for the weekend. Overnight lows look warm with mid to upper
60s expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at BNA/MQY/CKV. There is a chance that
fog could develop at CSV/SRB after 06z but confidence is not
high. A tempo group was included at the sites to address the fog
potential at this time. Winds will be out of the NNE/NE through
this afternoon at 5-10 kts. Winds will decrease below 5 kts this
evening. Winds will increase to around 5 kts late Monday morning
out of the S/SSW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      64  88  67  89 /   0  10   0   0
Clarksville    62  86  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     57  80  59  82 /   0  10   0   0
Columbia       61  86  64  87 /   0  10   0   0
Cookeville     60  83  62  84 /   0  10   0   0
Jamestown      58  83  60  83 /   0  10   0   0
Lawrenceburg   62  85  64  86 /   0  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   60  87  64  88 /   0  10   0   0
Waverly        63  87  65  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Reagan