Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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952 FXUS64 KOHX 261725 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1225 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 With convection moving across Upper Cumberland Region presently and moving into northwestern portions of our area around noontime hour, will continue with Tornado Watch across locations around and north of I-40 Corridor through 3 PM CDT. When it comes to latest CAMs, and let`s also throw in latest regional to global models also, none of them are really doing a good job of initializing and having a realistic weather pattern evolution through afternoon hours today. Less cloud coverage noted across locations south of I-40 Corridor and around and west of I-65 Corridor around noontime hour. Thus many quandaries abound as it comes to weather pattern evolution as these afternoon hours progress today. Another upper level shortwave passage is expected to traverse mid state region this afternoon and that should at least keep convection as a possibility for locations currently under the Tornado Watch. Certainly, some of that convection could be strong to severe, along with brief heavy rainfall potential, especially in locations that did not experience the morning round of convection or left over boundaries from this mornings convection provide a focusing mechanism for convective development as this afternoon progresses. While there is much disagreement and uncertainty as it comes to this afternoons forecast, there continues to be much better agreement as tonight progresses. Of all models looked over around noontime hour, best two seem to be a blend of most recent HRRR model run and latest GFS model solution. Still looking for a convective complex, MCS form, that may take on more of a linear structure as nighttime hours progress, to drop down out of southwestern Ohio River Valley Region/Western KY and into mid state region generally during a 9 PM CDT to 4 AM CDT time frame. In taking an average of these two preferred model solution forecasted sounding profile and associated derived indicies, MU CAPE values will be around 2,000 J/KG, BRN Shear values around 58m2/s2, right turning hodographs, mid level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km, SRH 0-1 KM & 0-3 KM 300m2/s2, DCAPE values around 1,000 J/KG, with PW values approaching 1.75 inches, and an older indicies favorite of mine, Total Totals, ranging in the mid 50s along with negative LI`s in higher negative single digit values. All modes of severe weather hazards continue to be possible. Latest SPC Day One Outlook has expanded their enhanced risk of severe thunderstorm area to entire mid state region. Still however believe that strong to damaging winds will be main weather hazard that Middle Tennessee will possibly have to deal with, with large hail and tornadoes secondary, but not by much. Continued flood watch for entire mid state region through 7 AM CDT Monday morning also per previous rounds of showers & thunderstorms that have occurred and those that look like they are coming through this afternoon and tonight. Look for showers and thunderstorms to eventually exit the mid state region by Monday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Not much change as it comes to forecast for rest of the week into upcoming weekend. Dry conditions will finally prevail by Monday night with a dry surface cold front dropping from north as Tuesday progresses with broad surface high pressure influences prevailing. Along with broad upper level troughing across most of eastern CONUS providing northwesterly flow across our neck of the woods through at least Thursday, a progression to cooler temperatures will commence beginning on Monday night with lows by Wednesday and Thursday Nights spanning the 50s, possibly upper 40s Cumberland Plateau Region, with highs on Thursday only in the upper 70s to lower 80s, mid 70s Cumberland Plateau Region. A warmup will begin on Friday into first part of next weekend with temperatures once again several degrees above seasonal normal values as upper level ridging influences move across our area. As surface and upper level ridging influences begin to shift eastward, a more southerly low level atmospheric flow pattern will develop supporting increased moisture advection across our area that could result in shower and thunderstorm chances returning to mid state region as Friday night through the upcoming weekend progresses. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Active weather expected during this taf cycle. A line of strong to severe storms is currently approaching from the west and is expected to bring impacts to terminals through the morning. Additionally, some scattered development is possible this afternoon, but no one model has a good idea where they`ll develop or even if they will develop. If storms do develop this afternoon, all modes of severe weather will be possible, likely bringing VFR vis thresholds down to IFR. A second line of strong thunderstorms is expected to push in from the west tonight after 04Z, with strong winds and very heavy rain being the primary threats. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 90 70 85 64 / 70 90 30 10 Clarksville 88 69 82 61 / 80 90 30 10 Crossville 82 64 78 55 / 70 90 60 10 Columbia 90 68 84 61 / 40 90 30 10 Cookeville 83 66 79 58 / 70 90 40 10 Jamestown 82 64 77 57 / 80 90 60 10 Lawrenceburg 88 68 84 61 / 40 90 30 10 Murfreesboro 89 68 84 60 / 50 90 30 10 Waverly 89 67 83 61 / 70 80 30 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Monday morning for Bedford-Cannon-Cheatham- Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Fentress-Giles- Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon- Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson- Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-Wayne- White-Williamson-Wilson. && $$ SHORT TERM...JB Wright LONG TERM....JB Wright AVIATION.....Baggett