503
FXUS64 KOHX 291102
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
602 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Without much going on in the short term and only 3 days left in the
month of May, I got interested in where May 2024 stands in the way
of rainfall in historical standards. It`s been wet hasn`t it? After
checking the record books, my perception isn`t too far off. As far
as Mays go, even without rain expected in the last 3 days of the
month, May 2024 will be a top-15 month at BNA with 7.15 inches of
rain. Not too shabby. Fortunately, we`re getting this respite from
the rain this week, allowing grounds to recover a bit and rivers to
relax because the active weather is going to return this weekend.
For now, look for both highs and lows to hover right around normal
through Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Late Friday night, we`ll start getting back into another active
period of weather. Saturday should bring showers and thunderstorms
to the area as a shortwave pushes across the center of the country.
Forecast soundings still look benign, so this is good. In a bit of a
change from last night`s forecast, Sunday and a good portion of
Monday look relatively dry, so the entire weekend may not be a
washout.

What is starting to get my attention are the forecast soundings in
the middle of next week. Yes, yes. It`s 6-7 days away so many things
will likely change, however models have been showing rain in this
time frame for a couple of days now. Starting Tuesday, as general
troughiness spreads across the region, we may be in for quite a
bit of rain. PWs could be running near record levels and with weak
flow and slow storm motions, rainfall totals might start piling
up after multiple periods of rain from Tuesday right through
Friday. I don`t see anything in the way of severe, but this will
be worth watching in regards to a wet start for June.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR will continue through the next 24 hours. NW winds will
increase to 10G16KT today, then winds will become light tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      81  57  81  57 /   0   0  10   0
Clarksville    78  54  78  55 /   0   0  10   0
Crossville     75  50  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       82  56  80  57 /   0   0  10  10
Cookeville     75  52  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      74  50  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   82  55  79  56 /   0   0  10  10
Murfreesboro   82  54  81  55 /   0   0  10   0
Waverly        80  56  80  57 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....13