781
FXUS61 KOKX 190558
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
158 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in place through Monday. The high
gradually slides farther out into the Atlantic through midweek.
A frontal system approaches from the west Wednesday night. The
associated cold front approaches Thursday and moves across
Thursday night. Brief weak high pressure returns towards the end
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/..
Light rain/drizzle across eastern portions of the area has come
to an end with the upper trough axis having shifted offshore.
However, plan to maintain a slight chance of rain across
eastern LI/SE CT with the possibility of some of the light
rain/drizzle across SE New England working into this area.

Patchy fog is seeming less likely with dew point depressions
generally a few degrees and a northerly flow maintaining a
supply of drier low-level air.

High pressure will remain across the Northeast with the ridge
axis extending across far western portions of the forecast
area. Low temperatures will be a few degrees above normal with
plenty of cloud cover around.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure along the new England coast remains in control
during this time. A lingering shower still possible for eastern
zones in the morning, and although another shortwave may arrive here
during the afternoon, moisture will be more shallow. Will therefore
go with a dry forecast for the afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy
conditions in the morning, then probably at little less in the way
of clouds during the afternoon. Highs near normal in the upper 60s
to lower 70s. Heights rise aloft Sunday night into Monday. It could
start out mostly cloudy in the morning for coastal areas, but
anticipating mostly sunny conditions across the entire area during
the afternoon. Based on mixing up to around 925mb, deterministic NBM
looked reasonable for high temperatures. Highs ranging from near 80
for parts of the Lower Hudson Valley, to the mid 60s for eastern LI
and the SE coast of CT, which will have cooling onshore winds during
the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Large scale numerical weather prediction models convey the upper
level jet as weak across the local region early into midweek. Then,
jet stream level winds increase as a quasi-zonal jet streak moves
into the area Thursday into Friday before shifting northeast of the
region next Saturday.

At the surface, high pressure moves farther offshore early into
midweek. 850mb temperatures are warming during this time period.
Synoptic pattern will be favoring low level warm air advection with
more SW to W flow. Dry conditions are forecast Monday night through
Wednesday.

Low pressure weakens and moves north of the Great Lakes
Wednesday night into Thursday. Its associated cold front approaches
the local region from the west. The cold front moves across the
local region Thursday night. Shower and convective activity is
forecast to decrease in coverage as the front moves farther east.
There is forecast of the potential showers and thunderstorms, slight
chance Wednesday night into early Thursday, higher chance Thursday
into Thursday night. Higher instability is forecast across the
interior and less to the east across the more marine low level
environment Thursday into Thursday evening. Therefore, locations
near NYC and to the north and west will have the higher chances of
seeing any rain showers and thunderstorms. 850mb temperatures do not
change as much between Wednesday and Thursday.

The local region will then be in between two low pressure systems
for Friday and Saturday of next week. The ECMWF recently trended
farther south and weaker with a wave of low pressure for next
Saturday. There is uncertainty in this timeframe and some
fluctuations of the low positions and thereby some rain potential
for the local area are possible with subsequent forecasts. Forecast
currently has slight chance of rain showers for much of the region
but some areas forecast to have relatively higher chance late Friday
night and Saturday but only between 25 and 30 percent.

Surface high temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 60s
to lower 80s for a majority of the region Tuesday, Wednesday and
Thursday. Relatively cooler high temperatures are forecast along the
immediate shore and the Twin Forks of Long Island, more within the
60s. High temperatures are forecast to trend downward slightly for
Friday (more in the 70 to 80 range) and next Saturday (mostly in
the upper 60s to mid 70s).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak surface high pressure remains over the area through Monday.

MVFR, locally IFR cigs, likely re-develop early this morning
through the morning push. Gradual improvement to VFR through the
afternoon from w to e. MVFR cig development possible late
tonight into Monday AM push once again.

NE winds around 10kt, occasional gusts to mid teens for eastern
terminals in the aft. Winds may veer to E/SE in the afternoon.
Light E/NE winds tonight.

 ..NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of cig improvement may be off by an hour or two.

Timing and amount of veering of winds from NE to E/SE this
afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Late Tonight...MVFR cigs developing.

Monday...MVFR early morning, then VFR. NE winds AM, then SE PM.

Tuesday-Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday...VFR, a chance of MVFR with showers and thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions currently anticipated across all local
waters through the middle of next week. However, with an
approaching cold front Wednesday into early Thursday and its
passage Thursday night, wind gusts will be reaching around 20
kt. Ocean seas forecast will be in the 3 to 4 ft range.
Conditions could trend more rough in subsequent marine forecasts
with higher ocean seas and higher wind gusts. Therefore would
not rule the possibility of SCA conditions in this time period
of Wednesday through Thursday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic issues through the middle of next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/JM/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM