547
FXUS61 KOKX 280624
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
224 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will move through overnight. A series of
reinforcing cold fronts will then move across during the middle
of the week. High pressure will build in from Friday into the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
Precip has moved off to the east. As of 2 AM pre-frontal trough
was moving across the NYC metro area and lower Hudson Valley,
with cold front entering ern PA, shunting deep moisture and lift
eastward. Fog and low clouds expected over most of the area with
light S flow and moist low levels. Could be briefly/locally
dense.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Mean troughing continues across the region Tuesday, with initial
shortwave exiting east late tonight and broad trough approaching
Tue afternoon into Tue night.

Atmosphere dries out significantly behind the initial shortwave
and exiting cold front late tonight into Tue AM. A couple of
weak cold fronts moves through the region Tuesday AM and PM.
With limited moisture and W/SW flow, expecting dry conditions
and only scattered aft cu. Gusty offshore flow (25 to 30 mph),
deep mixing, and gradual CAA should allow for temps to rise into
the lower to mid 80s for much of the area. Have leaned towards
NBM ensemble 50th percentile w/ favorable synoptic setup for
heating and NBM deterministic lying near the 25th percentile.

Low pressure continues to track across New England Tuesday night
dragging a PM weak front across the area. Unseasonably mild
conditions continue Tue Night in weak offshore flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level trough remains over the region to start to the
long term with an mid level shortwave moving across the region
on Thursday.

There continue to be differences with the progression of
shortwave energy within the upper trough. The GFS continues to
be more progressive with this feature, while the ECMWF has
remained fairly consistent with a slower, stronger system. The
latter of which reflects a surface low to the south of the area,
For now, will continue to carry just some chance POPS during
this period. Expecting at least a chance of showers areawide
Wednesday night into Thursday. Confidence remains somewhat low
during this time. The shortwave moves away from the region
Thursday night with drier air moving into the area.

Attention then turns to the upper trough closing off just
offshore on Friday. There clearly has been an eastward progression
of this low, which in turn leads to a mainly dry forecast with
surface high pressure building into the area over the weekend.
There are then timing issues with a frontal system progressing
from the west which could bring showers into the region next
Sunday. Right now, expecting a mainly dry weekend. A better
chance of showers returns on Monday.

Highs in the long term will generally remain in the 70s each day,
with the warmest of the day Sunday and Monday, where a few
locations may come close to 80 west of NYC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front off to the west will move across this morning.

Showers/tstms have ended, with VFR cond at KSWF, and lingering
low level moisture still capable of producing at least TEMPO IFR
conds at the NYC metros mainly before 09Z, and IFR/LIFR cond at
KHPN and the Long Island/CT terminals overnight and into the
daylight hours before 13Z-14Z.

Blustery cond develop by afternoon, with W flow 10-15G20-25kt,
highest at the NYC metros. Winds decrease significantly after
23Z-00Z Wed.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Fcst carries TEMPO IFR cigs from 07Z-09Z but could remain MVFR
or better overnight. So unscheduled AMD`s are possible to
address flight cat deviating from fcst.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Late Tuesday night: VFR.

Wednesday and Thursday: Chance of afternoon showers/tstms with
MVFR or lower cond, then late night/early morning low stratus
and fog potential.

Friday and Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA`s taken down for all but the ocean waters and even there it
is questionable with seas currently running 3-4 ft. Showers and
tstms have passed to the east.

Conditions should remain below SCA levels Tue night and remain
below criteria for mid to late week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No additional issues expected attm.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate rip current risk continues on Tuesday due to 3-4 ft
ocean seas, and on Wed with a 2-3 ft mix of SE and S swell.
This is supported by the latest RCMOS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
     353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/NV
NEAR TERM...BG/NV/DW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG/BC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG