496
FXUS61 KOKX 301328
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
928 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure pushes off the New England coast into this
afternoon, with a weak low pressure trough remaining in its
wake through this evening. High pressure over the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley will then build toward the Mid Atlantic coast
from late tonight into Friday night Saturday, and move off the
coast on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Have continued to trim back PoPs this morning as low pressure
continues to push off the New England coast. Showers have
largely dissipated across the area, and this trend is expected
to continue for the rest of the morning.

The upper trough axis will approach this afternoon and evening.
Moisture is limited, but fairly steep lapse rates may lead to
isolated showers, especially east of the Hudson and NYC
corridor. There is limited CAPE aloft and latest forecast
soundings indicate a cap around 10 kft, so will not mention
thunder at this time. Any isolated shower should diminish after
sunset.

High temps today should reach the upper 60s across SE CT and
the fork of Long Island, lower 70s most elsewhere, and the mid
70s across NYC and NE NJ, which is near normal. Low temps
tonight will range from the mid/upper 50s invof NYC, to 45-50
across the interior and in the Long Island Pine Barrens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Fair wx expected during this time frame along with a gradual
warmup as sfc high pressure builds toward the Mid Atlantic
coast and vis rising heights aloft as an upper ridge builds
toward the East Coast. High temps in the 70s on Friday will
reach the upper 70s/lower 80s in most places on Sat, with
lower/mid 70s confined to the immediate south shores of Long
Island and SE CT. Low temps Fri night should be similar to those
of tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday begins with a surface high pressure ridge not too far
offshore and an upper ridge overhead. The ridge aloft flattens
in the afternoon and evening with the approach and passage of a
shortwave. This may trigger a shower in spots Sunday afternoon
and night for western and far southern portions of the forecast
area.

Heights recover somewhat on Monday into Tuesday with surface
high pressure in control. Dry for Monday. Probably dry for
Tuesday as well with deep ridging, however don`t want to remove
slight chance/chance PoPs Tuesday afternoon and night just yet
as there`s a chance of a surface trough and shortwave aloft
triggering a shower. The pattern doesn`t change all that much
for Wednesday, but models seem to agree that the ridging shifts
more offshore. Slight chance/chance PoPs therefore for Wednesday
as well.

NBM was used for temperatures. Each day will feature highs above
normal, ranging mostly from the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A surface trough remains in the vicinity through the day, then high
pressure builds in tonight.

VFR, but tempo MVFR cigs until 13-14z. Can`t rule out an isolated
shower or thunderstorm this afternoon and early evening, however
this would only bring a brief reduction in VSBY if it were to occur.
Not high enough probability for inclusion in the TAFs.

NNW-N winds 10-15kt with gusts 17-20kt into early afternoon. Winds
then back slightly tonight as they diminish below 10kt.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

End time of gusts may be off by an hour or two.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday through Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions expected for the most part. There could
be some wind gusts approaching 25 kt during mid to late
afternoon on the ern ocean waters in offshore flow in the wake
of departing low pressure, as well as seas building to 4 ft.

Although southerly winds increase on Sunday, they will likely
remain below advisory thresholds with seas building up to 3-4
ft by late in the day into Sunday night. Sub-advisory conditions
continue on Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Have increased today`s rip current risk to moderate for the
Suffolk beaches, where combo of SE-S long period swells and
offshore flow 15 kt should build surf to 3-4 ft. Rip current
risk remains low for today for the Nassau and NYC ocean
beaches, and low for Friday for all the ocean beaches.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...BG/DS
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...