Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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061 FXUS66 KOTX 261014 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 314 AM PDT Sun May 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather returns on Sunday and Monday with temperatures warming back into 70s and 80s with a ridge pattern over the Pacific Northwest. Tuesday will see a return of showers and thunderstorms to Eastern Washington and Idaho Panhandle. A cool, wet pattern will continue through the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Today and Monday: A warm, dry period is expected as a ridge builds over the Pacific Northwest. Ensembles are in decent agreement with the pattern. Sunday morning will continue have lingering shower activity over the higher terrains before drying out by the afternoon. A more stable airmass will keep winds calmer than Saturday with afternoon gusts only reaching into the teens. Monday will be very similar. The next system will begin to increase upper level clouds over the region late Monday afternoon. Highs for the period will be in the upper 60s and 70s. Some Central Basin areas could see low 80s Monday afternoon. Lows will be in the 40s and low 50s. /JDC Tuesday through Saturday: Tuesday is looking like the most eventful day of the forecast period as of right now. Clouds will increase early Tuesday morning as weak impulses ripple through the atmosphere ahead of the approaching cold front, and with the increase in cloud cover will come increased chances for showers. Areas most likely to see precip will be the Cascade Crest, northeastern WA, the Blue Mountains, the Palouse, and the ID Panhandle. Chances for showers in these areas range from 30 to 60 percent. Thunderstorms will be possible as well for northeastern WA, the Blues, the Palouse, and the ID Panhandle Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Probabilities for thunderstorms range from 20 to 30 percent. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Idaho Panhandle in an area of marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday. High temperatures Tuesday will be similar to those on Monday, in the 70s to low 80s. Tuesday and Wednesday are looking rather breezy with gusts in the neighborhood of 20 to 30 mph for most of the region. Following the passage of the cold front, temperatures will drop back down to seasonal normals in the 60s to low 70s Wednesday and Thursday. An upper-level trough tracking through the area will keep chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast along the periphery of the region (over the Cascade Crest, along the Canadian border, in the ID Panhandle, and down to Pullman and Lewiston). A slight majority of models (around 60 percent of them) are showing another ridge building by Friday, while the remaining 40 percent want to keep the trough over us. If the ridge scenario plays out, we`ll likely see a drying and warming trend heading into next weekend. /Fewkes && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: VFR conditions for TAF sites for the next 24 hours. Gusty winds have begun to subside but will remain breezy through the night across the Basin and Palouse, including GEG/PUW/MWH/EAT. These breezy winds will continue through Sunday afternoon before subsiding Sunday evening. A weak ridge will begin to build over eastern Washington Sunday, but moist upslope flow into the Cascades will continue to support precipitation and mountain obscuration through Sunday afternoon. There is a 15-25% chance for showers to develop across northeast Washington and far north Idaho Sunday afternoon, with the best chance over the mountains. Warming temperatures aloft will limit cumulus vertical growth, so the potential for lightning is very low (less than 5%). FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is high confidence for VFR conditions to continue across the TAF Sites. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 65 44 73 51 75 46 / 10 10 0 0 20 10 Coeur d`Alene 61 44 72 51 74 47 / 10 10 0 0 30 30 Pullman 62 43 72 51 73 44 / 10 0 0 10 20 40 Lewiston 71 49 80 57 81 52 / 10 10 0 10 20 50 Colville 64 37 72 44 72 39 / 20 10 0 0 50 50 Sandpoint 59 43 70 48 72 44 / 20 10 0 10 50 60 Kellogg 57 46 70 53 75 48 / 20 10 0 10 40 60 Moses Lake 71 44 78 52 78 45 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 67 47 76 54 73 47 / 10 0 0 0 10 0 Omak 70 43 76 50 73 44 / 10 0 0 0 20 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$