Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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894 FXUS64 KOUN 252309 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 609 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 606 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 - Seasonable and dry weather is forecast through the weekend. - A cold front is expected early next week, but significant weather with it not anticipated. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 A beautiful evening is expected area-wide with a high pressure just to our northeast. Clear skies with lightening north-northeasterly winds are expected. The main short-term forecast focus was to cue in on the potential for more fog/stratus in central Oklahoma tonight into tomorrow morning. On the surface, it looks like a night where one would expect to see a reprise of this morning`s fog. Skies will clear out and winds will move towards calm. However, where models yesterday showed a wide area reaching toward saturation by daybreak today, models only show relative humidity reaching 70 percent or so by daybreak tomorrow. The potential still exists for patchy fog in terrain-favored areas, particularly where heavy rain fell in the last few days. Relatively calm conditions and mostly clear skies are expected tomorrow as well as the surface ridge builds in to our south. Highs may tick up a degree or so compared to today, but not much more than that. Meister && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Hurricane Helene is expected to make landfall in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday night. From there, it is expected to phase with a cutoff low over the Tennessee Valley, which will keep a large troughy pattern across the southeast for several days. Our area is expected to be on the periphery of this troughiness with a stout subtropical ridge across the Desert Southwest. The result will be modest tropospheric northerly flow through the weekend, with more clear and comfortable days expected. Highs should generally range into the low 80s with lows sitting in the mid to upper 50s. A slight warm-up is possible on Monday as the next trough approaches the northern Plains. This warm-up will serve as the lead-up to potentially the strongest cold frontal passage of the fall so far, which looks to be in line for about Tuesday. Meister && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 VFR conditions to continue. Light winds and clear skies expected tonight. There is a low chance for some patchy fog late tonight across central into southeast Oklahoma, however chances remain too low to mention at OKC/OUN/DUA at this time. Skies remain clear during the day Thursday with some increase in north to northeast winds. Exception will be at WWR where southeast winds will occur. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 56 78 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 55 84 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 57 85 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 53 84 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 53 81 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 58 84 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...30