999
FXUS64 KOUN 170823
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
323 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

With moist lower atmosphere, moist ground, and light wind, areas of
fog are expected this morning across northern/central/southeast
Oklahoma, possibly into portions of western north Texas. Limiting
factor for any dense fog will be amount of low level cloud cover
development between now and daybreak. This is expected to be
delayed across southeast and far northern portions of Oklahoma, so
dense fog will be possible in those areas and we will monitor for
any needed advisories. Fog will be possible again tonight, mainly
across southeast portions of Oklahoma.

Positively tilted upper trough will make slow eastward progress over
the region today and tonight and should result in redevelopment of
scattered showers with a few non-severe thunderstorms. With the deep
layer flow quite weak, any storms that develop will be slow moving
and could result in minor flooding. Most if not all of the rain
activity today should be confined to areas east of the upper trough
axis, generally east of a line from Quanah/Altus, to OKC and
Stillwater. Rain chances will decrease from west to east late this
afternoon and evening.

With cloud cover expected for a good portion of the day across
the southeast half of Oklahoma, most highs are expected to stay in
the 70s. Highs in the 80s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

A very warm and muggy weekend still expected across most of the
region, with what many would consider hot across western Oklahoma
and western north Texas. Thanks to potential dryline intrusions
across far western Oklahoma and western north Texas, highs in the
upper 90s appear possible Sunday and especially Monday, before
more seasonable temperatures return by mid week.

As a long wave trough begins to approach the Great Basin and
northern Plains Sunday, a complex of storms is expected across
Kansas. There is a chance that the southern extent of this complex
could move into north central Oklahoma late Sunday/early Monday. The
southern extent of this convection will be limited by developing
EML/strong cap. Despite this cap, an isolated storm or two cannot be
ruled out near the previously mentioned dryline over far western
Oklahoma late Sunday afternoon and early evening given the
anticipated hot temperatures, available moisture, and low amplitude
wave ejecting downstream of the larger trough. If a storm can
develop and mature, it would likely be severe.

As this trough amplifies and merges with a southern stream trough
Tuesday/Wednesday, thunderstorm chances will increase across the
region Tuesday through Thursday. While there will be a strong cap
in place initially, a frontal intrusion and substantial height
falls will keep chances for storms going in the forecast. Best
chances for scattered rain/storms (30-40% probabilities for now)
will areas near and east of I-35 where moisture will be deeper
and cap weaker. During this timeframe, given amount of shear and
instability, severe storms should be anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Some showers/storms may impact SPS/LAW at the beginning of the
forecast, but currently chances remain too low to mention.
Some MVFR ceilings are expected to develop overnight. Could also
see a period during the first part of the day for a few showers
along and east of I-44 as upper trough moves across the area.
Otherwise, skies will clear from west to east during the day and
into the evening hours with light winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  79  60  87  65 /  30   0   0   0
Hobart OK         82  59  91  66 /  20   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  81  61  90  67 /  30  10   0   0
Gage OK           84  58  93  63 /   0   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     81  59  87  63 /  10   0   0   0
Durant OK         80  61  87  65 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...30