Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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026 FXUS64 KOUN 190809 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 309 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 ...Enhanced Risk Of Severe Storms This Evening For Northern OK... Shortwave progressing eastward form southern California early this morning will round the base of developing western U.S. longwave trough and approach our area late today and tonight. Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected across Kansas, with coverage decreasing with southern extent into northern, possibly western Oklahoma east of dryline late this afternoon/early evening. Strong instability and shear will be in place for supercells, with very large hail and damaging winds the primary concern. Tornado threat will remain low, initially due to LCL height, and later on due to progressive/outflow dominant mode expected later in the evening. Right now, it appears that outflow dominant bowing segments will be the favored mode during the mid and late evening hours across north central Oklahoma. There is a chance for the storms to expand farther south into central Oklahoma prior to midnight if cold pool is intense enough this far south and interacts with low level jet. Damaging wind gusts would be the concern if that happens, although sporadic with increased lower level stability by that time. Will be another hot day with most forecast highs in the 90s, about 10 to 15 degrees above average. There will be stronger winds than we saw yesterday, which will help with air quality. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Above average temperatures expected to continue Monday and Tuesday ahead of seasonably strong cold front. Models are having some run to run consistency with the timing of this front, with a noticeably slower progression. With this slower trend, not bringing the front through until Tuesday night, the late Tuesday/Tuesday night period could end up being a bigger deal severe weather wise across a larger portion of Oklahoma. While large scale forcing will not be all that strong, greater amounts of moisture and late day timing will likely yield severe storms near and ahead of the front especially central and southeast Oklahoma. Depending on how far south the effective frontal boundary makes it on Wednesday we could see post frontal showers and storms across northern Texas and southern Oklahoma, with heavy rain a concern. As another shortwave trough approaches from the southwest on Thursday, and the frontal boundary lifts back north as a warm front, another round of severe weather still appears possible for Thursday. Though there are model differences the farther out we go, active pattern continues with the possibility for severe weather through next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1029 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Light winds and mainly clear skies overnight. South winds will increase quickly Sunday morning with gusts over 30kts expected across western Oklahoma. Have introduced some precip chances after 00Z tomorrow evening at PNC/SWO as storms potentially move across northern Oklahoma && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 89 68 92 73 / 0 30 0 0 Hobart OK 93 67 97 71 / 20 20 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 92 71 94 74 / 0 10 0 0 Gage OK 94 62 97 65 / 30 20 0 0 Ponca City OK 89 66 91 72 / 0 60 0 0 Durant OK 90 70 89 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...30