226
FXUS64 KOUN 191956
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
256 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

A moist and unstable airmass is in place across the area ahead of a
dryline, which has positioned itself to the west of the western
OK/ TX panhandle border as of mid-afternoon. We expect isolated to
potentially scattered thunderstorm development to occur within
the next one to two hours along the dryline, with initially high-
based supercells expected which will be capable of very large hail
and damaging wind gusts. As we head into the evening hours, there
still appears to be a window for a tornado threat if any of these
supercells can sustain themselves, remain discrete, and not
become too outflow dominant, as the low-level shear ramps up with
a strengthening low level jet.

Additional convection is expected to develop across southern Kansas
where forcing will be greater and capping will be weaker near the
mid-level shortwave. This area of storms is expected to grow upscale
into a convective complex this evening, with the potential for large
hail and damaging, potentially significant (80+ mph) wind gusts. The
bulk of this is currently expected to remain in Kansas and far
northern Oklahoma, but could potentially make it further south if it
is able to interact with the low-level jet and lead to a more
southward propagation of the line.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Monday looks to be the least convectively active day of this week as
shortwave ridging moves over the region ahead of our next system.
This next wave still appears to be poorly timed and is expected to
be east of the area by peak heating. However, subtle height falls
are still shown in the models even behind the wave Tuesday afternoon
and evening as the area remains within a broader scale longwave
trough centered across the western US. If this were to occur,
subsidence behind the wave may not be all that strong and given a
moist and unstable airmass in place, capping could potentially be
overcome. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be
possible across central and eastern portions of the area ahead of
the dryline, with additional development possible along a cold
front that will move into the area Tuesday evening. The main
hazards with storms on Tuesday appear to be large hail and
damaging wind gusts, with veered low-level flow potentially
limiting tornado potential somewhat.

The cold front will slow its southward progression on Wednesday,
likely stalling in the vicinity of southeast Oklahoma, where another
round of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening. The front will attempt to lift back north
ahead of another shortwave approaching the area on Thursday, but
there is still a great deal of uncertainty on how far north the
front lifts and the extent the airmass can destabilize with the
potential for lingering clouds/precipitation Thursday morning.
Nevertheless, another round of severe thunderstorms is expected near
and south of the boundary Thursday afternoon and evening.

At least some potential for additional rounds of storms (potentially
severe) looks to continue Friday into next weekend as an unstable
airmass remains ahead of an oscillating dryline and a band of
southwesterly flow is maintained aloft.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through this evening
(~22-00/20th UTC). Gusty south/southeasterly winds are expected to
develop shortly after sunrise, with gusts upwards of 30-34 knots
possible, especially at KCSM/KWWR this afternoon.

By late this afternoon, widely scattered showers/storms are
expected to emerge across northwestern Oklahoma, spreading into
northern/north-central Oklahoma by the late evening. For now,
impact is most likely at KWWR/KPNC during the period, though
southward expansion towards additional central Oklahoma terminals
is possible. MVFR/IFR category is expected amidst this activity.
Will also monitor for low-level wind shear and low stratus
development early Monday morning, though spatial coverage of both
appears limited at this time.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  89  68  91  73 /   0  40   0   0
Hobart OK         93  67  98  71 /  20  20   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  92  72  95  74 /   0  10   0   0
Gage OK           94  61  95  65 /  30  30   0   0
Ponca City OK     89  65  89  72 /   0  70   0   0
Durant OK         90  70  89  72 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...34