448
FXUS64 KOUN 202304
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
604 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Much quieter conditions are in place today as shortwave ridging
ahead of our next trough is expected to limit thunderstorm
development this afternoon. This trough will eject into the central
plains Tuesday morning and continue to lift northeastward from there
through the day. This will place much of our area under at least
weak subsidence on the backside of the wave by mid to late
afternoon, although height rises look minimal as the region remains
within a broader scale longwave trough to the west. With a moist and
unstable airmass in place, some of the models hint at early to mid
afternoon convective development as capping erodes along the dryline
and the trailing edge of lift with the wave moves by. This appears
to be a very low probability (<20%) and activity would be fairly
isolated. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the main
concern during the afternoon as low-level winds veer, limiting
the tornado potential early on.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Later Tuesday afternoon into the evening, attention will turn to a
cold front that will sink slowly southward through Tuesday night.
This will provide a focus for convective development, which is
initially expected to occur across northeast into north- central
Oklahoma, with chances then spreading southward overnight into
central Oklahoma. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
hazards, with a very low tornado risk. Heavy rainfall and
localized flooding will also be a concern with the potential for
training of storms along the slow moving boundary.

Showers and storms will likely continue into Wednesday morning, with
the best chances expected to be across central and southeast
portions of the area as the front continues its slow progress
southward. The front is expected to stall during the day Wednesday,
with continued development of thunderstorms in the vicinity of the
front, with a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy
rainfall.

The front is then expected to retreat northward and/or dissipate
over the area on Thursday with pressure falls to the west inducing
the return of southerly winds. This will allow moisture to surge
back northward during the day, with additional chances for severe
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening.

The area will remain under modest southwest flow aloft from
Friday through the weekend, and with an oscillating dryline and
plenty of instability, can`t rule out at least isolated
thunderstorm chances each day. Potential exists for greater
thunderstorm coverage if we can get a more consolidated shortwave
to move out over the area, but timing these waves is difficult at
this range.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Gusty south to southeast winds will continue overnight with a few
high clouds across the area. There will be a developing LLJ that
will create LLWS at all sites except DUA after midnight. Could see
a period of MVFR ceilings develop across the eastern half of the
area toward morning, however veered low level flow will aid in
shifting these clouds east of the area by mid-morning. A surface
trough/dryline will work east toward the I-35 corridor during the
day tomorrow with southwest winds behind the boundary that will
weaken during the afternoon. Some showers/storms possible across
southeast by late in the day, but chances remain too low to
include in forecast at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  74  92  65  76 /   0  10  30  40
Hobart OK         73  95  62  81 /   0   0  10  20
Wichita Falls TX  75  94  73  85 /   0  20  10  40
Gage OK           65  91  54  80 /   0   0  10   0
Ponca City OK     72  93  60  75 /   0  10  40  30
Durant OK         71  88  73  87 /   0  20  10  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...30