Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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446 FXUS64 KOUN 021739 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER... Issued at 1059 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Near-term forecast has undergone some complications this morning. Convection across the eastern Texas panhandle, rather than dying out, has intensified and begun propagating eastward across the Red River Valley of southwest Oklahoma. The likely culprit appears to be two-fold - first, a surge of greater boundary layer moisture with dewpoints in the low 70s in southern Oklahoma; and secondly, the development of an MCV from the panhandle storms to aid in forcing for convection to develop. While no convection-allowing models have handled this turn of events well, short-range guidance shows MLCAPE increasing from 1,500-2,000 J/kg this morning to nearly 4,000 J/kg (almost certainly overdone thanks to widespread anvil shading in reality, but still a signal of the increasing moisture/lapse rates aloft) by noon. The ongoing storms will continue to propagate eastward along the developing MCV throughout the rest of the morning and into early this afternoon. The severe risk will be on the sporadic side due to the weak nature of overall deep-layer shear. Still, hail to the size of quarters, damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, frequent cloud-to- ground lightning, and heavy rainfall will all be possible with this activity as it approaches I-35 along and south of I-40. It`s possible the activity will begin to weaken this afternoon as it approaches southeast Oklahoma. Then our eyes will turn to potential next rounds of severe weather. Meister && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 136 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Much less convective activity this morning than what was anticipated. Most of what is out there is expected to dissipate this morning with again mainly dry conditions across the area through much of the day. Although with the amount of instability that will be present, if any weak residual low level boundaries survive into the afternoon or there is some differential heating boundary an isolated shower/storm can not be ruled out. By afternoon, attention turns to potential convective development along the dryline, which looks to be near I-27 by late in the day. Models differ with amount of convective development and also what does occur, just how far east this activity will make it. Best chances appear to be across western and southwest Oklahoma, perhaps continuing across the Red river valley through the night Sunday night. Farther north, convection will initiate near a surface cold front from South Dakota southward into northern Kansas. Some of this may try to make a run at northern Oklahoma late Sunday night into early Monday. Otherwise, warm and muggy conditions expected today and tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 136 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 May have a triple point to play with Monday afternoon across northwest Oklahoma with a weak surface low connecting both the weak front across Kansas and a dryline that will be located across western Oklahoma. Storms may form by afternoon near this intersection and then expand east and southeast into central and then eastern Oklahoma by evening. Surface boundary will still be in place as we go through the day Tuesday, along with the dryline and may see more isolated development along these boundaries Tuesday afternoon and evening from central into northeast Oklahoma. Does appear to be some upper support as trailing end of shortwave trough traverses the area. By the middle of the week mid-level ridge builds east out of the Rockies into the Plains as large upper low moves through the Great Lakes region. This will initially bring warmer temps to the area with most of Oklahoma and north Texas warming into the 90s with only minimal rain chances. We also remain on the fringe of northwest flow and by late in the week models bring another surface front south into the area, which may bring slightly cooler air and at least some additional rain chances for the end of the week into the following weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 TSRA from a MCV will continue to impact our terminals in central through southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas reducing them to MVFR conditions with a low CB cloud deck and reduced visibility at times through 23Z. A second round of storms associated with an MCS coming off the High Plains may affect our terminals after 03Z resulting in MVFR to IFR conditions although probabilities are low at this point so have PROB30s in place. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 83 68 85 71 / 60 40 50 20 Hobart OK 82 67 93 69 / 70 40 20 10 Wichita Falls TX 82 69 91 73 / 70 40 20 10 Gage OK 86 65 93 66 / 20 40 20 10 Ponca City OK 86 68 84 69 / 30 40 50 30 Durant OK 82 69 86 72 / 40 40 40 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...68