358
FXUS64 KOUN 192306
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
606 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

A moist and unstable airmass is in place across the area ahead of a
dryline, which has positioned itself to the west of the western
OK/ TX panhandle border as of mid-afternoon. We expect isolated to
potentially scattered thunderstorm development to occur within
the next one to two hours along the dryline, with initially high-
based supercells expected which will be capable of very large hail
and damaging wind gusts. As we head into the evening hours, there
still appears to be a window for a tornado threat if any of these
supercells can sustain themselves, remain discrete, and not
become too outflow dominant, as the low-level shear ramps up with
a strengthening low level jet.

Additional convection is expected to develop across southern Kansas
where forcing will be greater and capping will be weaker near the
mid-level shortwave. This area of storms is expected to grow upscale
into a convective complex this evening, with the potential for large
hail and damaging, potentially significant (80+ mph) wind gusts. The
bulk of this is currently expected to remain in Kansas and far
northern Oklahoma, but could potentially make it further south if it
is able to interact with the low-level jet and lead to a more
southward propagation of the line.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Monday looks to be the least convectively active day of this week as
shortwave ridging moves over the region ahead of our next system.
This next wave still appears to be poorly timed and is expected to
be east of the area by peak heating. However, subtle height falls
are still shown in the models even behind the wave Tuesday afternoon
and evening as the area remains within a broader scale longwave
trough centered across the western US. If this were to occur,
subsidence behind the wave may not be all that strong and given a
moist and unstable airmass in place, capping could potentially be
overcome. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be
possible across central and eastern portions of the area ahead of
the dryline, with additional development possible along a cold
front that will move into the area Tuesday evening. The main
hazards with storms on Tuesday appear to be large hail and
damaging wind gusts, with veered low-level flow potentially
limiting tornado potential somewhat.

The cold front will slow its southward progression on Wednesday,
likely stalling in the vicinity of southeast Oklahoma, where another
round of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening. The front will attempt to lift back north
ahead of another shortwave approaching the area on Thursday, but
there is still a great deal of uncertainty on how far north the
front lifts and the extent the airmass can destabilize with the
potential for lingering clouds/precipitation Thursday morning.
Nevertheless, another round of severe thunderstorms is expected near
and south of the boundary Thursday afternoon and evening.

At least some potential for additional rounds of storms (potentially
severe) looks to continue Friday into next weekend as an unstable
airmass remains ahead of an oscillating dryline and a band of
southwesterly flow is maintained aloft.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Storms to impact northern sites WWR/PNC/SWO this evening with
mainly VFR conditions elsewhere. Could see some MVFR ceilings late
tonight across north central into central OK before VFR conditions
return area-wide. South winds will remain rather gusyt tonight and
will remain so across much of the area through the day Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  91  73  91 /  40   0   0  20
Hobart OK         67  98  71  96 /  20   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  72  95  74  93 /  10   0   0  10
Gage OK           61  95  65  93 /  30   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     65  89  72  93 /  70   0   0  20
Durant OK         70  89  72  88 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...30