Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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085 FXUS64 KOUN 181728 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Areas of fog will be seen again early this morning, mainly confined to locations near and east of I-35. Low-lying locations could see some brief dense fog across southeast portions of Oklahoma, from Ada down toward Atoka and Durant. With plenty of insolation and a return to more predominant southerly flow, most high temperatures are expected to be 8 to 10 degrees warmer than those seen yesterday, with many locations reaching the 90s. With plenty of UV and relatively light wind, the air quality alert issued yesterday by the department of environmental quality will continue into early this evening. Toward the end of the afternoon and into the first half of this evening, thunderstorms will build south and west through Kansas along a stalling frontal boundary. A few storms could build into extreme northern/northwest Oklahoma. Strong wind gusts will be possible with any storm that manages to make it south of the Kansas border, but they should dissipate after sunset. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Very warm to hot temperatures will continue through Tuesday, before a frontal boundary and more cloud cover will keep temperatures closer to average the rest of the week. High temperatures close to 100 degrees not out of the question Sunday through Tuesday across far western Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas. These areas would be west of an oscillating dryline. As a shortwave trough ejects downstream of a developing western U.S. longwave trough, scattered thunderstorms will try to develop near this dryline across northern/western Oklahoma Sunday afternoon and evening. There will be primarily a damaging hail and wind concern with any storm that forms. Locations from Buffalo and Woodward, over toward Alva, Cherokee, Enid, and Medford should be prepared for severe storms through the evening. There is a chance for the storms to expand farther south and east Sunday night as low level jet impinges on a potential cold pool. Damaging winds would be the concern into central Oklahoma if this were to occur. After the potential for a minimum in storm chances on Monday, the previously mentioned longwave trough begins to slowly progress eastward into the central portion of the country Tuesday through Thursday. This will help usher in a cold front from the north late on Tuesday, and at the same time, allowing the dryline to mix farther east into central Oklahoma. Severe storms appear likely with the current model trends pointing to areas near and east of Interstate-35. This will be dependent on how far east the dryline mixes on Tuesday. All forms of severe weather appear possible late on Tuesday, at least for the eastern half or so of Oklahoma. Post frontal showers and maybe a few storms possible on Wednesday, before main trough axis is progd to shift east over the region on Thursday. Thursday will need to be another day to watch with increased shear and plenty of moisture near the retreating frontal boundary. There is enough disagreement in models on Thursday to keep confidence somewhat low on exact location of severe weather potential. The ECM is a little faster and more amplified with the trough, yielding a more pronounced signal for severe storms. The GFS keeps most of the convection south and east of our CWA. Highest PoPs will remain across the southeast half of Oklahoma. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 VFR conditions are expected. Light winds overnight will increase from the south after sunrise tomorrow morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 88 65 89 69 / 0 0 10 20 Hobart OK 92 66 94 69 / 0 0 20 20 Wichita Falls TX 91 68 93 72 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 93 64 96 62 / 10 10 20 20 Ponca City OK 89 63 90 67 / 0 10 10 50 Durant OK 88 66 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...26