Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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668 FXUS64 KOUN 232343 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 643 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 637 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - Areas of fog, some dense tonight, mainly southeast of I-44. - Rain chances return Tuesday/Tuesday night (30-50%) with next cold front. - Additional chances for rain Friday into Saturday, but lower than normal confidence during this period. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Skies have been slow to clear across central and eastern Oklahoma early this afternoon, keeping temperatures cooler in the mid to upper 60s, with some low 70s to the west. With continued clearing overnight and light winds, expect good radiational cooling conditions. This will help low temperatures fall into the low 50s north to upper 50s south. With substantial ground moisture across central and southern parts of the area, conditions will also be favorable for at least patchy fog to develop early Tuesday morning. Tuesday will see a bit of a warming trend with highs expected to reach the upper 70s and low 80s ahead of our next cold front. This front will move across the area during the afternoon and evening as a cutoff low develops to our north and east. This system is expected to bring a chance (30-50%) for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to the area, with the best chances across central and southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. Ware && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Wednesday and Thursday appear dry and mild as the upper low is forecast to move southward into Arkansas. As it does so, PTC9 (likely to be Hurricane Helene at this point) is forecast to move northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Most models suggest the upper low and tropical system will then undergo a Fujiwhara interaction as the two systems rotate around each other. Depending on how all of that shakes out, we could see tropical moisture entrained into the circulation of the upper low and advected westward into our area, which would set up the potential for rain chances to rotate into the area from the east. A lot of factors are at play to lead to this scenario, so expect continued changes to the forecast as models come into better agreement. For now, we have 20-30% chances for rain across roughly the eastern half of the area Friday into Saturday. The temperature forecast is also a bit uncertain by late week into the weekend, as greater cloud/shower coverage would likely lead to cooler temperatures than we have currently. Ware && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...IFR conditions introduced to forecast... With slow, late day clearing across central and southeast portions of Oklahoma, along with expected clear skies overnight with light wind and wet ground, we will be more aggressive with BR/FG development late tonight and tomorrow morning. IFR conditions appear likely from central into southeast portions of Oklahoma. With increasing southwest/downslope component to lower level wind fields ahead of tomorrows cold front, will be optimistic and bring VFR conditions back before 17Z. Mid level clouds will increase with upper wave, and cold front will switch winds to northerly across northern/western Oklahoma before end of forecast. Will leave mention of TSRA out for now with uncertainty and probs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 57 81 58 78 / 0 10 30 10 Hobart OK 55 88 58 84 / 0 20 20 0 Wichita Falls TX 59 89 62 85 / 0 10 40 0 Gage OK 52 84 52 83 / 0 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 54 78 54 80 / 0 10 10 0 Durant OK 60 87 62 84 / 0 0 40 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...11