Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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055 FXUS64 KOUN 220514 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1214 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1213 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - 60-80% shower/storm chances through Monday morning. Marginal risk for severe storms Sunday afternoon & evening. - Marginal to slight risk for localized flooding tonight into Sunday, highest across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. - Below average temperatures Sunday into much of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Water vapor imagery depicts the center of an upper level low progressing eastward across eastern Arizona early this afternoon. Ahead of this feature, large scale ascent is supporting widespread showers and storms across eastern New Mexico and the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles, with a few storms making it into northwest Oklahoma. More substantial shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to move into western Oklahoma tonight as a cold front makes its way south and eastward. A few of these storms could be strong this afternoon, but the majority of severe weather is expected to remain to our west this afternoon and evening. As the front continues its way southward and the upper low moves closer to the area, showers and thunderstorms will continue to progress across more of the area during the day on Sunday. Frontal timing has sped up over the previous forecast which will have implications on the temperature forecast and where severe potential will be highest tomorrow afternoon. It appears that instability will be highest near and SE of the I-44 corridor which is where we may see redevelopment or intensification of ongoing convection tomorrow afternoon. The main hazards with these storms will be damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail. Similar hazards are possible further west tomorrow morning with convection expected to be ongoing along and north of the front. Given forecast PWATs of 1.5-2.0" heavy rainfall will also be possible much of the day tomorrow. Given steering flow is fairly parallel to the front we may see training of thunderstorms in some locations which could lead to a localized flooding threat. However, given the lack of recent rainfall our 1 and 3 hour flash flood thresholds are rather high (2.5 to 4 inches) which will mitigate the risk overall. As of now the highest overall heavy rain threat appears to be across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas where thunderstorm activity is expected to be most numerous and persistent. Finally, the cold front is expected to bring much cooler temperatures in its wake, with portions of northwest Oklahoma likely stuck in the upper 50s to low 60s for much of the day tomorrow, with a tight temperature gradient expected across southwest into central Oklahoma. Forecasting exactly where this gradient will be located is difficult, but it is quite possible that some locations in central and southwest Oklahoma see steady or even falling temperatures during the afternoon as the front passes through. Ware && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Rain chances diminish Monday morning across southeast Oklahoma as the front pushes further south of the area. Cooler temperatures are expected to stick around for much of the coming week, with highs 5- 10 degrees below average for this time of year as a trough remains over the central US. As shortwave energy digs across the central plains and attempts to form another cutoff low, parts of the area could see additional chances for showers and storms. However, models still show significant disagreement on the track of this next system and uncertainty is higher than normal at this range. This system may then linger in the vicinity late next week, maintaining cooler temperatures and potentially more rain chances for parts of the area. Ware && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 MVFR conditions near TSRA and also behind main cold front, spreading north to south. North winds, becoming breezy, will fill behind the front as it marches southeastward through the day. Areas of TA and TSRA will shift southeastward through the day with the front. Day && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 80 56 71 54 / 70 80 10 0 Hobart OK 75 52 75 53 / 80 60 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 88 58 77 58 / 50 60 10 10 Gage OK 63 46 73 49 / 50 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 77 55 70 51 / 70 60 10 0 Durant OK 92 63 79 60 / 10 30 40 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...14