Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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728 FXUS63 KPAH 012352 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 652 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Localized heavy rain, and a few thunderstorms, could result in isolated flooding issues this afternoon and evening. - An unsettled weather pattern is forecast to remain in place next week, resulting in on and off chances of showers and storms, mainly Monday to Wednesday. - High temperatures are projected to trend warmer, reaching the mid to upper 80s Monday to Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 355 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Scattered showers are developing this afternoon, progressing eastward through the Quad State. Localized heavy rainfall is occurring, with a few spots (mainly around Mississippi County into Ballard/Carlisle Counties) experiencing training, which may lead to flooding. Rainfall estimates in those areas are up to 3-7 inches. Lightning activity has struggled to get going, and opportunities for clearing this afternoon have been limited. An upper trof moves through to our north this evening bringing the last chance for some organized thunderstorms. Even strong storms are unlikely, let alone severe. Highs of 70-80 today will be the coolest in the 7 day forecast. Precip exits the region late tonight with calm winds settling in. Any areas that are able to see even temporary clearing tonight can easily develop fog, but clouds are likely to continue rotating in from the northwest so this will need monitoring tonight. Dry weather is anticipated Sunday as high pressure moves through, with a warm front lifting north Monday as winds shift to southerly and become breezy. An upper level disturbance moves across the Heartland Monday bringing showers and thunderstorms. Plenty of CAPE will be available but very little shear, with pulse storms more likely though some models attempt to organize a line in Central Missouri. A marginal risk in the Day 3 SPC outlook covers this potential. Active weather continues with a second disturbance moving through Tuesday. Wednesday brings greater potential for a frontal passage as an elongated trough digs into the Great Lakes while ridging builds in the west resulting in northwesterly flow aloft. From Monday to Wednesday, the southerly winds bring in warm air, lifting highs to the mid to upper 80s. Following the Wednesday front, drier conditions become more likely for the end of the week. However, models set up a boundary between the Great Lakes low and the southwest ridge and develop precip along the boundary. Should the boundary line up across the Quad State (at the moment, ensembles lean further south), PoPs will need to increase late week into the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 649 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 SCT SHRA will move east next few hours. May see brief CIG/Vsby restrictions from this activity. Main forecast challenge will be fog potential tonight. Guidance favors clearing across SEMO, and portions of S IL. Any areas that see clearing skies will likely see fog. Highest confidence is at CGI and MVN. MVFR CIGS will likely continue at EVV/OWB overnight. Terminals will return to VFR by Sunday morning. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ATL AVIATION...AD