214
FXUS63 KPAH 241826
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
126 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
  evening into the overnight. Stronger storms will also be
  capable of heavy rain, which may cause localized flooding.

- Numerous thunderstorms are expected Sunday-Sunday night. The
  best chance of more widespread severe storms is Sunday
  evening, when all severe weather modes are possible. Heavy
  rain and localized flooding will also be a potential hazard.

- Drier conditions with closer to normal temperatures will be
  the rule for much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Scattered convection today-tonight will pack heavy rainfall
capable of causing some localized flooding, esp if they can
repeat over the same areas. There`s about 20-30 kts of steering
flow so most of the morning rain, while heavy, moved enough to
preclude broader scale issues, given hourly RR up to 1.5". The
severe risk is moreso tied to an incoming front into an
environment that may still have 2000+ J/KG of CAPE as it nears
closer to midnight, when bulk shear will have increased 5-10
kts from now. As a result, damaging wind/hail from stronger
cells cannot be ruled out. While later afternoon/early evening
convection looks more pulse oriented, the incoming front could
offer a more linear convective translation overnight. This will
include the potential for training echoes/heavy rain causing
localized flood issues.

After a relative pause Saturday, when the chance of storms is
not zero but the chance of severe is minimal...all eyes will
turn to Sunday. An approaching 80+ kt upper level jet will see
its left front entrance region nearing within a difluent height
pattern offering good updraft growth enhancement potential, as
700-500 mb modeled lapse rates have spiked upwards to 8C/KM,
quite robust. We see bulk shear nearly double to 40-50 kts from
now to the end of Sunday. As a result, all modes severe are
expected with the primary system approach and passage Sunday
evening-overnight. Earlier, we may get caught up in the warm
sector convective growth as the shear and instability parameters
grow, but latest modeling suggests this will be mainly to our
north, where ongoing activity from late morning on thru the
afternoon is possible. We cannot rule out this time frame for
strong or even severe storms, but the better dynamical inputs
come together with the primary system as aforementioned, from
late day into the overnight. Heavy rains capable of localized
flooding will also be possible Sunday-Sunday night.

While the low level features push the storms on thru Sunday
night, the upper trof lags with passage so showers/isolated pops
linger into Monday. After that, we look pretty dry and seasonal
for the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Active early afternoon convection offers restrictions to MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS or potential thereof. After a relative lull
thereafter with mostly Visual Flight Rules, pops pick up again
tonight with CIGS/VSBYS again in restricted flight categories. A
front`s passage late tonight will result in predominant MVFR
CIGS and some pop may linger into early tmrw before bases
scatter and all clears to VFR again.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$