Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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888 FXUS63 KPAH 191712 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1212 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and very warm conditions are expected Sunday through Tuesday. - Chances of thunderstorms return to the forecast Tuesday night and continue through next Saturday. Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night will have the best chances of thunderstorms and some potential for severe weather. A heavy rainfall and flooding threat could eventually develop. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 343 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Dense fog has developed just over the border in NE Arkansas and NW Tennessee, where more substantial rainfall fell yesterday. Across the Quad State, a few climatologically favored sites have had reduced vsbys, with only CGI dropping below a mile for now. Patchy fog early this morning near the rivers/lakes and in areas which received rainfall Saturday is possible, and an SPS has been issued for this concern. Ridging moves over the Quad State Sunday through Tuesday, allowing for dry conditions and temperatures to soar to well above normal. An upper level disturbance moving northeastward to the Northern Great Lakes Monday may slightly disrupt the ridge, but models agree on high pressure centered to our east keeping the rain to our northwest. Light winds today will become breezy and southerly by Tuesday; a Lake Wind Advisory may eventually be needed for Tuesday. Highs today reach the mid to upper 80s with more than a few 90s likely on Tuesday. Dew points remain in the 60s throughout, not high enough to add more than a couple degrees for the heat index vs temperature, but as it is this will be the hottest weather so far this year so treat outdoor activities like summertime. Models continue shifting a little later on the midweek system as low pressure tracks northeastward from the lee of the Rockies towards the Upper Midwest. Of the three ensembles, the GFS is the faster in progressing the low. A boundary with showers and thunderstorms approaches the Quad State Tuesday evening, but ensembles show decreasing thunder chances as it moves into the Quad State and the NAM struggles to maintain much more than showers. The D3 SPC outlook shifts westward and limits northwestern portions of the Quad State to a marginal risk. The cold front will provide better forcing, though a timing near Wednesday evening or possibly even into the overnight hours may be somewhat limiting. Convective parameters are present and adequate, suggesting a few strong to severe storms are possible. In the end, the more important question may be how far into Tennessee the front can reach. High pressure passes by to our north Thursday but the frontal boundary could result in several rounds of showers for the remainder of the week as many models bring in a smaller scale disturbance from the southwest. Models still have fairly broad uncertainty regarding northern stream systems for the end of the week and weekend but suggest active weather. Repeated rounds of rainfall for an already rainy month may result in some flooding issues. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 The TAFs are VFR. A south wind will increase late Monday morning and few gusts to around 15kts will be possible, mainly at KMVN. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ATL AVIATION...DRS