Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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712 FXUS63 KPAH 201904 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 204 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and muggy conditions will continue into the first half of the weekend, with only a small chance of thunderstorms forecast. - A cold front will push through the region during the Sunday to Monday period, bringing a good chance of thunderstorms and much- needed rain for parts of the region. - Following the passage of the cold front, cooler and less humid conditions will arrive for the middle to latter half of next week, with only small rain chances during this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Tonight through Saturday night...A decaying cold front attempted to move into the region this morning, but it has been rebuffed by a stout ridge axis extending from the southern Great Plains into the Mid-South. A few showers associated with this boundary quickly dissipated as they moved into southeast MO and southwest IL. Remnant outflow boundaries and diurnal heating in this very warm and muggy airmass may kick off a few isolated thunderstorms this evening, mainly for areas across southeast MO northeast to the Interstate 64 corridor. However, the great majority of the region will stay dry. Overnight lows will be quite warm for late September, only falling into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Saturday will see a similar setup today, with very warm and muggy temperatures and humidity levels. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. Heat index values may approach or reach 100 degrees in a few spots. More isolated to widely scattered diurnally- driven convection will pop up over southeast MO and far southwest IL as well. However, most locations looks to stay dry again. Overnight lows Saturday night will again by quite warm, in the upper 60s. Sunday through Monday night...Rain and thunderstorm chances will be in the rise beginning Sunday as a more potent cold front moves towards the region. This front will have some upper-level support as an H5 trough moves southward into the Upper Midwest. The first wave of showers and thunderstorms will push through the Interstate 64 corridor, while locations further south stay dry. This will lead to a wide range in temperatures on Sunday, with highs ranging from the lower 80s along I-64 to the lower 90s along the AR/TN borders. As the front progresses southeastward into Monday and Monday night, PoPs will ramp up in similar fashion. This will keep high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s on Monday due to higher rain chances and increased cloud cover. The steadier rain will gradually exit the region from west to east Monday night. Rainfall totals have increased during the Sunday-Monday period, due to the potential for multiple rounds of convection and elevated precipitable water levels. The latest QPF through Monday night shows about 0.75-1.5" for southern IL and southwest IN. Rainfall amounts will taper off further south, with forecast amounts of 0.5-1.0" over southeast MO, and about 0.25-0.75" across western KY. Tuesday through Thursday...A transition to a cooler and less humid pattern will arrive for the middle part of the upcoming work week. H5 troughing will settle over the Midwest, and high temperatures will cool to more fall-like values. High temperatures will warm into the middle to upper 70s in most areas, with comfortable overnight temperatures dipping into the middle to upper 50s. The persistent trough will result in elevated cloud cover and perhaps a few light rain showers, but the great majority of the region looks to stay dry during this period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 For the 18z TAFs, steady SW surface flow will continue ahead of the approach of a weak cold front. Winds will be 5-10 kts this afternoon, relaxing to 5 kts or less overnight. This front may kick off some isolated convection this evening, but coverage at this time looks to be too low to mention in any TAF at this time. FEW-BKN diurnal CU with bases around 7kft will wane this evening, with SCT mid- and high-level cloud cover persisting through the remainder of the period. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DWS AVIATION...DWS