985
FXUS63 KPAH 300700
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
200 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions, cooler temperatures, and lower relative
  humidity continue into Friday.

- A more unsettled pattern returns this weekend into next week
  with daily rain chances along with a warmer and more humid
  airmass.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

One good thing to come from the recent, fierce weather has been
this comfortably cooler airmass that is now in place. It looks
to last thru the work week`s end, with dew points in the 50s and
highs in the upper 70s to around 80 both today and tomorrow.

After Friday, we get on the back side of the ridge as low
pressure approaches from the west. Return flow southerlies will
drive dew points back into the 60s by this weekend, as rain
chances return within a more unsettled upper flow pattern. The
low moves practically overhead Saturday, so that`ll be our best
pop day, with the NBM now offering categorical pops and there
are no arguments here. That wave opens up and flattens out upon
its track into the Ohio Valley, and after its departure we lull
our pops for about 24-36 hours before the next wave offers
another pops spike. This pattern repeats thru the remainder of
the package, with perhaps the next best rain chances (after
Saturday`s) offered next Tuesday-Wednesday. That`s when a more
robust and tightly wound low pressure storm system tracks
across the Great Lakes, and drags a cold front into/across the
PAH FA. Best dynamics with it appear to remain to our north.

Rainfall projections over the weekend have spiked upwards to
about an inch, maybe an inch and a half in the Ozarks. This
translates to a MRGNL-SLGT risk on the ERO. The pattern shift to
more unsettled also brings more summer-like air with highs
returning to the mid and upper 80s and dew points to the upper
60s to around 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Surface high pressure centered over the eastern part of the
Commonwealth on the backside of a departing upper trof will keep
our flow cool and dry out of the northeast to east thru the
forecast package. Time/height cross sections do reveal 20-30 mb
of condensation pressure deficit in the cloud bearing layer,
suggesting similar to yesterday diurnal cu flare in the 5-7K FT
AGL range supportive of SCT-BKN bases potential during peak
heating.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$