Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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264 FXUS63 KPAH 282324 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 624 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slightly below normal temperatures, dry conditions, and low humidity will be the main story through Friday. - A somewhat unsettled pattern returns this weekend into early next week with daily rain chances along with a more humid summer-like airmass. && .UPDATE... Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Updated the aviation section for the 00Z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 The upper level pattern features a longwave trough over the Great Lakes and ridging across the Rocky Mountains. This places our area in northwest flow. The trough will slowly churn eastward towards the East Coast through Friday and the ridge will become centered over us by late Thursday into Friday. Meanwhile, weak vort energy will translate east across the Plains on Friday and into the Mid- Mississippi Valley Friday Night into Saturday. This feature will provide our next focus for precipitation. Once this passes, there may be additional weak energy that passes through our region Sunday into early next week. Ensemble guidance seems to be in general agreement that the highest chance for precip this weekend will be Friday night into Saturday. However, with the zonal flow in place, any weak ripples passing through may ignite additional showers and storms Sunday into early next week. It does appear we become increasingly more humid (dewpoints back into the upper 60s to low 70s) along with higher instability by early next week. If enough shear is realized with any wave passing through, some strong to severe storm potential can`t be ruled out. The CSU MLP depicts a rather broad region of the central CONUS for potential strong storms both Monday and Tuesday. Whether this stays largely out of our cwa or not is far too early to speculate at this juncture. Temperatures will be slightly below normal through Friday with highs primarily in the mid 70s to around 80 and lows falling into the 50s. Thereafter, we warm back up to near and even above normal by late in the weekend and early next week with highs into the mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s to around 70. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. A few mid-level clouds will pass through. Northwesterly winds will become calm tonight, then shift to the NNW to N around 7-10 kts Wednesday. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...ATL DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION...ATL