827
FXUS61 KPBZ 030534
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
134 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
There is a potential for early morning fog Monday. Mainly dry
weather is then expected through Tuesday, with widespread rain
returning Wednesday. Periodic rain chances are then expected
into the weekend. Temperatures remain above average through much
of the week, cooling slightly into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Shower coverage will diminish into the late evening.
- There is a potential for fog between 3am and 8am Monday
  morning.
- Dry weather overnight, minus a few stray showers in the
  ridges.
--------------------------------------------------------------

Evening Discussion: Weak lift has kept precipitation chances low
and light across the region this evening. Despite a blanket of
low-lvl cumulus across eastern OH/ western PA, fog potential
will remain elevated with sufficient boundary layer moisture and
light winds overnight. However, confidence is currently not
high on the need for a widespread Fog Advisory.

Previous Discussion:

Rain should end this evening as ridging begins to build. Any
lingering overnight showers will be confined to the higher
terrain.

The lack of notable dry advection behind the system will
increase the probability of fog as clouds begin to clear
overnight.

Limited insolation and rain will keep afternoon highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Temperatures will fall into the
60s/upper 50s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather continues through Monday.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Upper ridging will build over the region Monday and Tuesday,
keeping mostly dry for those days. CAMs do continue to hint at
an isolated shower/thunderstorm or two with daytime heating,
primarily over the ridges, so have left minimal POPs in each
afternoon for those areas. Most of the area will remain dry.

Temperatures will warm to above normal with increasing heights.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- More organized showers and thunderstorms are expected
  Wednesday into Thursday.
- Periodic showers with cooler conditions are expected into the
  weekend with a slowly crossing upper-level low.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

An unsettled period is expected Wednesday into the weekend as an
upper level low slowly crosses from Manitoba through the Great
Lakes.

The most focused period of convection associated with this
trough/low is expected Wednesday afternoon and evening. Strong
southerly flow Tuesday night and Wednesday should lead to
temperatures in the mid-80s by Wednesday afternoon, with dew
points approaching 70F. This should contribute to moderate
instability across the region and convection developing in the
warm sector sometime during the afternoon/evening timeframe. A
more focused line of storms is then possible as the front
crosses into the overnight. With 20-30kts of deep-layer shear,
this environment may support a low-end severe weather threat.

Brief clearing is expected behind the front Wednesday night into
Thursday, but the upper-level low will dig across the Great
Lakes Thursday and Friday and into New England by Saturday. This
will keep cooler and showery conditions in the forecast for the
second half of the week. While there is low confidence on
pinpointing the best timing of these showers each day, ensembles
do agree on the general showery pattern persisting into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rapid evolution in conditions is possible in the near term
(through 13z/9am) as satellite imagery shows areas of eroding
cloud cover across portions of eastern OH into western PA. The
biggest impact is the clearing of generally VFR clouds may
translate to rapid onset of fog formation.  Model handling of
erosion locations and timing remains poor, so TAF represents an
interpolation of where clearing in noted in satellite and
coinciding likelihood of fog formation.

Confidence significantly increases after 13z/9am when diurnal
heating/mixing will erode areas of fog/stratus and lead to VFR
conditions for much of the day. The exception is a brief period
of MVFR as rising bkn cu develops between 14z-17z, which will
become VFR and scatter out in the afternoon. Dry weather is
expected, though a low probability shower/thunderstorm may occur
over the higher terrain of WV.

.Outlook...
VFR conditions are favored until the next low pressure system
generates widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into
Thursday. Fog, favoring the river valleys, could occur near dawn
prior to that next system.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...Frazier