Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
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717 FXUS66 KPDT 292128 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 228 PM PDT Wed May 29 2024 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night...Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will diminish through this evening as an upper-level trough exits to the east and an offshore upper-level ridge influences the region`s weather. Dry conditions are expected (95-100% chance) overnight through Friday evening. Locally breezy winds are expected to remain through the Cascade gaps overnight through Thursday with lighter winds elsewhere. A brief switch to light offshore winds is forecast Friday as the upper-level ridge axis moves overhead. Ensemble guidance is then in good agreement (>95% chance) that a weak shortwave trough will approach the PacNW by Friday night with a reversal to onshore winds accompanied by low (15-25%) chances of light precipitation along the Washington Cascade crest. Plunkett/86 && .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...Saturday will see a weak upper level trough passing over the region. Main impact will be some increasing westerly winds of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts. Precipitation will be limited mainly to the Cascade crest and over the far eastern mountains. This includes a slight chance of thunderstorms over Wallowa County. A deepening upper level trough in the Gulf of Alaska on Sunday will bring the next weather system further south late Sunday and Monday. This will start off with a weak warm front clipping the forecast area Sunday night with some low chance POPs followed by a cold frontal passage on Monday. This system will once again increase westerly winds on Monday but could also see some meaningful precipitation of a quarter to half an inch across the lower elevations and half an inch to around an inch in the mountains before the winds kick in. Deterministic models dry things out rapidly on Tuesday but the NBM keeps some lingering showers before turning dry on Wednesday. Expect this to get resolved after a few more model runs. && .AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours. There will be some SCT-BKN CIGs through the day and evening 050-090 mainly impacting PDT and ALW then clouds dissipate overnight. As a result of the passing upper level trough, breezy winds will occur at all sites with sustained winds 10-20kts and gusts around 30kts out of the west-northwest. Winds will decrease overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 39 67 42 75 / 10 0 0 0 ALW 44 70 45 77 / 20 0 0 0 PSC 45 74 48 80 / 20 0 0 0 YKM 37 72 41 78 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 43 73 44 80 / 10 0 0 0 ELN 40 67 42 77 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 34 69 38 78 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 37 64 39 74 / 10 0 0 0 GCD 36 67 39 78 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 44 73 47 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...86 LONG TERM....91 AVIATION...91