974
FXUS61 KPHI 281825
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
225 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front approaches the region from the northwest tonight and
Wednesday. Cold front looks to move through later Wednesday into
Wednesday night before moving offshore. Surface high pressure to
build in thereafter, holding influence over the region Thursday into
Sunday. Unsettled conditions could return late weekend into the
beginning of next week thanks to the next low pressure system and
associated fronts.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A few isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm this afternoon
across the Poconos and Lehigh Valley as a weak secondary frontal
boundary moves through the region. Severe threat will be minimal
with very limited instability in place despite modest deep layer
shear. While temperatures will not be much cooler behind the front,
a much drier air mass will overspread the region with surface dew
points falling into the 50s. Winds will remain elevated through
sunset tonight with gusts around 25 mph.

Any showers and thunderstorms will end fairly quickly after sunset
with loss of diurnal heating, giving way to a tranquil night. Lows
tonight will be in the 50s to right around 60.

Dry to start Wednesday morning before the axis of a broad upper
level trough shifts overhead in the afternoon, bringing showers and
thunderstorms back into the forecast. Clearer skies earlier in the
day will allow to strong daytime heating, but thanks to the fronts
passing through the region on Tuesday, low-level moisture will be on
the lower side (surface dewpoints in the mid 50s at best). In
combination with high temperatures in the mid-upper 70s, only modest
surface based CAPE will result (500-750 J/kg). Model soundings
indicate that shear will also be on the lower side (30-35 kts) and
unidirectional. Putting all the pieces together, a few stronger
thunderstorms will be possible but severe potential remains overall
low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cold front will continue to cross through the region during the
first half of Wednesday night before moving offshore. Thereafter,
surface high pressure will look to build in from the northwest with
time. Though some shortwave energy may keep things slightly
unsettled Thursday, surface high pressure will dominate the region
through the rest of the short term.

Not too much to write home about with this forecast. WPC does not
have our region outlooked for any excessive rainfall; SPC does not
have our region outlooked for any severe weather. Chance of showers
and thunderstorms will continue into Wednesday night thanks to the
cold front and upper-level short wave continuing to pass through;
PoPs diminishing with time. Slight chance of a few
stray/isolated showers Thursday thanks to some lingering
shortwave energy. Otherwise, with surface high pressure building
in, expect high pressure to dominate Thursday, Thursday night,
and Friday. Mostly clear skies can be anticipated Thursday
onwards.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ensembles and deterministic models support surface high pressure
holding influence over the region Friday night into Sunday as it
moves generally eastward with time. With surface high pressure
possibly well offshore by later Sunday into Monday, next surface low
pressure system and associated fronts should be invited to impact
the region. Things look to become unsettled during the time frame of
later Sunday into the beginning of next week.

Overall, expect mainly quiet conditions Friday night through
Saturday night with things beginning to become unsettled again later
Sunday into the beginning of the week. No PoP included in today`s
forecast through Saturday night. PoPs approach from the west Sunday;
slight chance or chance PoPs Sunday afternoon onwards. Around
average temperatures expected through the term.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Rest of today (through 00Z)...VFR. Cannot rule out a passing SHRA or
TSRA at KRDG/KABE late this afternoon. W-NW winds 10 to 15 kt with
20 to 25 kt gusts this afternoon. High confidence overall, though
confidence is too low to warrant mentioning SHRA/TSRA at KRDG/KABE
TAF.

Tonight...VFR. W winds 5 to 10 kt. High confidence.

Wednesday...Prevailing VFR conditions to start. Sub-VFR conditions
possible in the afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms
arriving west to east. Light winds out of the west except for in and
around thunderstorms. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...Sub-VFR possible with showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance for isolated/stray showers,
mainly in the afternoon.

Thursday night through Saturday night...VFR.

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions through Wednesday. SW winds 10-15kts gusting to
20 kts late afternoon and early evening diminish to a light west
flow around 5-10 kts overnight. Winds turn SSW around 10 kts again
during the day Wednesday with gust up to 15 kts. Seas 2-4 feet
Tuesday night become 2-3 feet Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Sunday...No marine headlines anticipated.
Showers and thunderstorms expected Wednesday night.

Rip Currents...

SW winds this morning will become W and increase to 15 to 20
mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Although the flow will be offshore,
gusty winds will result in a MODERATE risk for the development
of dangerous rip currents at NJ beaches and a LOW risk at DE
beaches.

Winds will be much lighter on Wednesday. As a result, there is
a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at NJ
and DE beaches.

As always, rip currents can still develop, and often occur in
the vicinities of jetties and piers. Utilize any guarded beaches
this holiday weekend if venturing out into the water.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wunderlin
NEAR TERM...MJL
SHORT TERM...Wunderlin
LONG TERM...Wunderlin
AVIATION...MJL/Wunderlin
MARINE...MJL/Wunderlin